Grand Saline, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

694
FXUS64 KFWD 040617
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
117 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures will persist into early next week with
  little chance for rainfall.
- A weak cold front may approach our region towards the middle of
  next week which could result in low rain chances (20%) by
  Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tonight/
The presence of upper ridging with anomalously high heights will
result in another warm and dry day with highs in the upper 80s
and lower 90s. With moderate subsidence overhead, the diurnal
cumulus field will be unable to deepen and mature into rain
showers despite daytime heating and destabilization. A dry low-
level fetch and strong mixing of surface dewpoints will result in
low humidity this afternoon, keeping heat index values near or
even slightly below ambient temperatures. Overnight lows will be
in the 60s.
-Stalley
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday Onward/
The warm and dry weekend continues on Sunday as an increasingly
diffuse Gulf low allows dry ESE winds to prevail through the low-
levels. As this feature finally lifts off to the northeast heading
into the workweek, a more favorable fetch of low-level moisture
will resume, which will increase humidity and cloud cover heading
into Monday. This could also open the door for some afternoon
seabreeze convection to encroach on our southeastern zones. By
Tuesday, a deepening mid-level trough across the Northern Plains
should be capable of dragging a weak surface cold front southward
into North Texas, increasing low-level convergence. The upper
ridge axis should be far enough displaced to our south to allow
for scattered disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity in the
vicinity of this boundary both Tuesday and Wednesday. However,
temperatures are likely to remain near or above normal in the
upper 80s and lower 90s without significant temperature contrast
accompanying this frontal zone.
-Stalley
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/
VFR and light southeast winds of 5-10 kts will prevail through
the period with daytime cumulus near 6 kft.
-Stalley
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    69  90  68  90  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                67  90  65  90  69 /   0   0   0   0   5
Paris               61  87  63  88  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              66  89  63  89  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            64  89  65  89  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              69  90  68  90  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             63  88  64  89  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           66  89  66  90  69 /   0   0   0   0   5
Temple              68  90  64  90  66 /   0   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       66  89  63  90  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion