Grant, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

530
FXUS65 KBOU 071736
AFDBOU
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1136 AM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Better chance for storms across the plains this afternoon. A
  couple storms could be strong/severe over the far eastern
  plains.
- Isolated to scattered showers and storms most days this
  upcoming week but mainly over the higher terrain.
- Warmer for much of the week ahead, but chances of storms may
  increase along with cooler temperatures by the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 156 PM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Water vapor satellite imagery showing a shortwave trough tracking
across Utah with scattered/numerous showers and thunderstorms
over eastern Utah and western Colorado. As the shortwave tracks
northeast eastward it shears out some, losing some lift. In
addition to this, the airmass is more stable and drier across
eastern Colorado. This leads to the best chance for showers and
thunderstorms to be over the higher terrain. As the showers move
off the higher terrain, they are expected to be short lived as
they run into a more stable/capped airmass. With the shortwave
moving through the eastern part of Colorado tonight, can`t rule
out a few light showers.
For Sunday, flow aloft turns more westerly and is expected to
help decrease the amount of smoke in the air. Isolated/scattered
showers and storms are expected throughout the area Sunday.
Moisture and instability remains limited, resulting in mainly weak
showers and storms. A lee-side trough/dry line sets up over far
eastern Colorado. Better moisture will reside east of the surface
trough with dew points in the upper 50s. A few of the storms, may
be strong and can`t rule out a couple severe storms as well over
far eastern Colorado.
The upper level ridge that`s been off to our west slides east
across the Central Rockies Monday and Monday night. This is
expected to bring warmer and drier conditions with a slight chance
for a few weak showers and storms over the higher terrain.
Flow aloft turns southwesterly as the ridge pushes east of the
Central Rockies. Still a fair amount of uncertainty on how much
subtropical moisture gets pulled northward by the southwest flow
aloft. Looks to be enough for at least isolated/scattered showers
and thunderstorms each afternoon/evening, mainly focused over the
higher terrain.
For Friday and Saturday, models are hinting at general
troughiness over the western part of the country. This expected to
lead to slightly cooler temperatures and better chances for
showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/...
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
VFR conditions to prevail through today, tonight, and Monday. The
main weather concern will be for isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms with variable and gusty outflow winds from
roughly 21Z- 02Z. We`ll continue with the Prob30 in that period
since coverage should be relatively limited, but sufficient DCAPE
for VRB G30- 35kts. Winds will remain light west to variable
through 19Z and then transition to diurnal northeasterlies after
19Z. Then convection will likely mess with the winds 21Z-02Z
before settling back to SE 02Z-05Z and then SSW by ~06Z.
For Monday, a typical diurnal wind pattern is expected with
southwest winds weakening and then turning northerly during the
late morning hours (15-18Z). High based showers will be possible
after 21Z Monday with gusty outflow winds the main impact.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Meier
AVIATION...Meier

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion