Gregg, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

184
FXUS64 KEWX 201803
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
103 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Continued warm conditions this weekend into next week.
- Pattern uncertainty leading to low confidence in rain chances Tuesday
  through Thursday (currently 20-40%).
- Possible active pattern just outside of the long term period.
&&
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A look at the latest GOES 19 water vapor imagery shows a
subtropical ridge remains centered over northwest Mexico. This
has allowed weak west-northwesterly flow to continue in the
short term. Overall, low to mid-level moisture remains average
at best, leading to a lack of much seabreeze activity each
afternoon. Some patchy showers and storms may develop just
outside of our area and try and work into the Coastal Plains
later today, but odds are less than 10% for showers to move into
the region this afternoon.
On Sunday, the seabreeze looks to be a bit stronger and some
showers and storms will move into the Coastal Plains in the
afternoon and perhaps drop a quick 1/4" for those that are lucky
enough. Temperatures will remain hot and above normal for mid-
late September. Normal highs for the second half of September
range from upper 80s to lower 90s, and many locations may hit
the mid to upper 90s today and tomorrow.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
Monday and Tuesday are expected to be the hottest days of the
week with highs in the upper 90s for most locations outside of
the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau. Adding in increasing
humidity ahead of an approaching mid level trough and attendant
cold front, it`ll feel like 100-107 for many locations Tuesday
afternoon. The uncertainty continues with respect to the timing
of our first front in several weeks. For now, models have
converged on Tuesday evening after agreeing on earlier Tuesday
for several days. Scattered showers and storms are expected
Tuesday night into Wednesday with the best chance occurring
before midday Wednesday. Additional showers and storms are
possible Wednesday afternoon and evening, but the better threat
is Tuesday night into mid-Wednesday.
Beyond that, slightly cooler temperatures closer to normal highs
for late September can be expected, but it will remain warm.
Beyond Friday, things could get interesting with regard to the
possibility of a Pacific storm developing late next weekend, a
trough moving into the Four Corners, and abundant moisture ahead
of another frontal boundary moving into the region from the
northwest. A more active pattern may develop, one that we`ve
seen in the past during the month of October with decaying
tropical systems moving inland and getting pulled in by an
approaching trough. PWATS ahead of this possible rainy pattern
are some 2-3 SDs above the mean for late September/early
October. Something to watch in the coming days to see if models
continue to trend in this direction.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon and evening. There
is a low chance (10%) of an isolated SHRA 20Z-01Z today. A slight
uptick in moisture will lead to better coverage of stratus producing
MVFR ceilings Sunday morning between 09Z-15Z. This should scatter
out late morning. In addition, chances for isolated SHRA increase
slightly Sunday afternoon across the Coastal Plains, east of I-35,
to 20-30%.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              73  95  74  97 /  10  10   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  95  74  97 /   0  10   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     71  95  73  96 /   0  10   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            71  92  72  93 /   0  10   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  96  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        71  94  73  96 /   0  10   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             71  94  72  97 /   0  10   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        71  96  73  97 /   0  10   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   71  94  73  95 /   0  20   0  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  94  75  97 /   0  10  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           74  96  76  98 /   0  10   0  10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM...MMM
AVIATION...76

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion