Grenelefe, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

586
FXUS62 KTBW 211735
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
135 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Drier air continues across the area today, with PWats of 1.4
inches. A few showers/storms possible later this afternoon
mainly across the south. Moisture overspreads the area tomorrow
and Tuesday, with some upper shortwave energy moving over the
peninsula. This will allow for scattered to numerous showers and
storms with the highest chances south. As this feature shifts off
to the east, a little more dry air moves across the area, but only
cuts Pops 10-20 percent remaining generally in the scattered
range. Moisture returns for the end of the week as a cold front
approaches and then settles and stalls across the area by
Saturday.
Highs remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s through the week, then
lower a bit for Saturday to near 90 as more clouds and some rain
are in place with the stalling front. Lows around 70 north to
the mid 70s near the coast generally through the period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
NE flow will prevail with coastal terminals turning more to the
north with a weak sea breeze. Winds shift back to the NE/ENE and
lighten overnight. VFR conditions expected through the period. A
stray shower is possible across the southern terminals later this
afternoon/evening, but chances too low to include.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Winds continue from the NE/E through mid-week AOB 15 knots. Winds
then become light with weak ridging over the Gulf and then the
approaching front by the end of the week. Very low rain chances
today, but then scattered to numerous chances for the rest of the
period as moisture returns.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Moisture increases for Monday and Tuesday as some upper shortwave
energy moves over the peninsula allowing for scattered to numerous
showers and storms across the area. No concerns, except for
occasional lightning and some gusty winds near storms, as RH
values remain well above critical levels, and dispersions remain
fair to good.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  92  77  90 /   0  30  20  50
FMY  75  90  75  90 /  10  70  40  70
GIF  74  92  75  92 /   0  40  20  60
SRQ  74  91  75  89 /  10  40  30  50
BKV  69  92  72  91 /   0  20  10  50
SPG  76  89  77  88 /   0  30  20  50
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hubbard
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Carlisle

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion