Gruver, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

796
FXUS64 KAMA 101951
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
251 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Isolated thunderstorms expected in the northwest Panhandles today.
A few may become strong to severe.
Highs should remain above average for the next several days.
Thunderstorms are possible again on Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Today, a few thunderstorms may generate this evening in the
northwest zones of our CWA. Several CAMs show thunderstorms
forming off the high terrain this afternoon, in New Mexico. They
are expected to propagate southeastward into the Panhandles by the
evening hours. A few models, namely the HRRR, are keen on allowing
storms to continue after sunset. While day time heating will be
the driving component for convection today, a high end axis of
moisture should still be present by the night time hours. A weak
low level jet should also overtake the High Plains by nightfall.
Though 0-6 km bulk shear seems unimpressive today, a few storms
may still be able to persist tonight. Severe thunderstorm chances
remain low today, but are not zero. High DCAPE and inverted V
forecast soundings suggest damaging winds would be the primary
hazard today. Though with -7 degrees Celsius 500 mb temperatures
and modest effective shear, severe hail cannot be ruled out as
well. For the rest of the period, 500 mb heights continue to rise
while low to mid level moisture disperses. Thus, Thursday looks
to be dry and warm with highs in the 90`s range and PoPs less than
5%.
Rangel
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
The upper level ridge continues to build over the southern CONUS
at the forefront of the extended period. High pressure isn`t
suppressed until the weekend, when an upper trough digs down
across the central US. Once this trough moves through, H500
heights are forecast to stay below 590 decameters next week and
the upper high stays south. While the incoming trough is not
forecast to be as strong as the previous cold front last week,
highs are still forecast to drop into the 80`s Saturday and
Sunday. 80`s and lower 90`s should persist into next week. As the
trough swings through on Saturday, showers and thunderstorms are
possible upon it`s arrival. The severe potential remains in
question at this time, since it`s reliant on the timing of the
trough`s entrance to the region. For the rest of the long term
period, the NBM favors low end PoPs during the afternoons and
evenings of the new week. This is likely conveying the lower
coverage of the thunderstorms suggested by long term models.
Rangel
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
VFR conditions continue for all TAF site through the new 18Z
period. A chance for thunderstorms exists at DHT late tonight.
MVFR conditions are expected to occur if a thunderstorm moves over
the terminal. A PROB30 group has been introduced from 03Z to 06Z
to account for this possibility. Otherwise, breezy winds will
continue at all sites this afternoon. The wind direction should
remain southerly today, and speeds will die down after sunset.
Light winds will overtake the terminals by nightfall and last
until tomorrow afternoon.
Rangel
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion