Haldeman, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

283
FXUS63 KJKL 061850
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
250 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly dry and warm conditions will prevail again today.
- A cold front will bring an area of showers and perhaps some
  thunderstorms to the area Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed
  by cooler weather to finish the week.
- There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall Tue through Tue
  night, with isolated amounts of 2 to 3 inches of rain possible
  if storms move repeatedly over the same areas.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1011 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
Some sprinkles or light showers have reached the ground near I-64
this morning and likely some sprinkles are occurring in parts of
the Cumberland Plateau upstream of the Lake Cumberland Region.
With this in min, updated to include some sprinkles in the north
and west along with some slight chance pops nearer to or west of
I-75 through midday to account for radar trends. Remaining hourly
grids were freshened up based on recent observation trends.
UPDATE Issued at 756 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
Clouds are a bit more extensive than was expected early this
morning, and this has been blended into the forecast for today.
There are also some light returns on radar showing up near the
northwest edge of the forecast area (and westward) due to shallow
instability based around 850 mb. It`s questionable if this is
reaching the ground, and the forecast has not been updated to
include any precip for today, but it will need to be monitored.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 547 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
Early this morning, high pressure aloft is centered near the VA/NC
coast, while surface high pressure is centered offshore. On the
south side of the high, Atlantic and gulf moisture is advecting
west and northwest into the southeast CONUS (still mainly to our
south). Meanwhile, an upper trough extends from south central
Canada southwestward into the western CONUS. The trough will
advance eastward through Monday, especially its northern extent.
This will flatten the upper high/ridging, suppressing it
southward, while the surface high slips eastward. The advancing
trough will also support a surface cold front which will arrive in
Kentucky from the northwest on Tuesday. Flow between the
departing surface high and the cold front will advect the moisture
northward and northeastward. The front and upper trough will act
on this to produce an area of showers which will move in from the
northwest late tonight and Tuesday. Precipitable water is
forecast to reach 1.5-2" ahead of the front. Should convection
repeatedly fire over the same areas, efficient rain production
could bring locally heavy amounts. A lack of rainfall recently
will give a bit of cushion before excessive rain becomes a
problem.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
Showers/thunderstorms end late Tuesday night into early Wednesday
morning as a cold front and upper trough move across from the west
and northwest. This will leave us with west-northwest flow aloft
and surface high pressure passing east over the Great Lakes on
Wednesday, sending us noticeably cooler and drier air.
Multiple shortwave troughs are expected to move southeast in the
flow aloft late in the week and consolidate into a complex upper
low next weekend somewhere over the Central Appalachians and Mid-
Atlantic regions, with the ECMWF and GFS in generally good
agreement. Along with this, there is development of a coastal
surface low that moves up the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coastline
while remaining offshore, perhaps taking on some subtropical
characteristics. Regardless, the new scenario favors precip being
confined to areas to our east. Thus, after Wednesday morning PoPs
remain generally at or below 10 percent through the duration of
the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the first 12 to 15
hours of the period. However, an area of showers associated with
an approaching cold front should begin to begin to arrive from
the northwest by the 06Z to 12Z timeframe and could result in MVFR
conditions northwest of a KSJS to KJKL to KSME line which may
affect KSYM before 12Z. The area of showers and perhaps some
embedded storms should move further southeast into the area
between 12Z and 18Z and is forecast to bring MVFR to all the TAF
sites to end the period. Winds will generally be light and
variable through tonight and then become south to southwest at
10KT or less to end the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...CMC/HAL
AVIATION...JP

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion