Hammond, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

116
FXUS65 KBYZ 071913
AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
113 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Expect increased wildfire smoke today.
- Chance for precipitation in south-central Montana this
  afternoon and evening.
- Warmer today through first half of work week.
- Repeated chances for showers and storms starting Tuesday
  evening.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Through Monday Night...
Smoke and haze will be the main story in the short term as it will
continue to blanket the entire region through at least Monday
morning. Modest westerly winds aloft are helping to advect in the
smoke from the fires over Western MT as well as across OR, WA,
and BC. Air quality will likely be impacted, as some of this smoke
may be able to mix down to the surface today.
As a weak shortwave continues to move into the region, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible for western parts of the
CWA. The highest POPs (50-60%) are over the Beartooth/Absarokas as
they will be able to most effectively catch the monsoonal
moisture coming in from the SW. While it will be more difficult
for showers to move downstream into the foothills and towards
Billings this afternoon, this does seem possible as the shortwave
gets closer this afternoon. The extent of the thunderstorms later
today is still up in the air as the high concentrations of smoke
may limit the mixing at the surface as well as the instability.
All precip is forecast to be light, however, if the PBL can mix
out this afternoon, some gusty winds are possible with the
stronger storms. WMR
Tuesday through Sunday...
The mid-week trough is now forecast to move eastwards faster than
originally expected. The western part of the CWA is forecast to be
squarely in the southwesterly diffluent flow during the day
Tuesday. This means that while Tuesday was previously thought to
be mostly dry, showers and storms are now expected across the
western 1/2 of the CWA by Tuesday evening.
Wednesday through Friday appears to be a copy and paste forecast
as the parent upper level low stalls out over the great basin in
a rex-block sort of setup. This will put nearly all of the
forecast area under southwesterly diffluent flow for several days.
There is a potential for some stronger storms each day as MUCAPE
will be widespread over 500J/Kg with pockets, especially in
Eastern Montana, over 1500J/Kg each day. PWAT values will be
steady around 1" for much of the CWA with a southerly surface wind
making for at least some speed and directional sheer as well.
Experimental machine learning models have continuously showed at
least a 15% severe potential for the second half of the week for
several days now as well.
As we move into the weekend, the stalled low will be quickly
shoved northeastwards by another digging trough. These two systems
may then get into a Fujiwhara type of dance which could bring
continued unsettled weather into th middle part of the month. WMR
&&
.AVIATION...
Overall, VFR conditions will prevail across the forecast area for
the next 24 hours. The wildcard will be smoke infiltration from
the west. Local MVFR conditions are possible at times as this area
of more intense smoke moves across the area, though significant
visibility restrictions are not a given. More likely will be
flight level slant range visibility restrictions and obscuration
of area mountains. A disturbance will bring the chance for
isolated light showers and thunderstorms from 20z-04z for western
and central zones, including KBIL, KSHR, KLVM TAF sites. Erratic
wind gusts to 40kts will be the main threat near any convection
through this evening. Westerly winds will gust to 25kts today over
the western foothills (KLVM, K6S0) with winds diminishing with
sunset. Chambers
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/087 055/086 057/085 057/082 056/074 054/074 054/078
    11/H    01/H    21/B    33/W    57/T    65/W    32/W
LVM 048/083 047/081 048/079 046/077 046/070 044/071 044/075
    21/H    03/T    34/T    45/T    57/T    55/T    22/W
HDN 054/088 052/089 055/089 055/084 053/077 052/074 049/079
    11/H    00/H    21/B    22/W    56/T    65/W    31/B
MLS 056/088 055/087 061/089 060/086 057/081 056/072 052/078
    10/H    00/U    21/B    22/W    44/T    76/W    42/W
4BQ 058/085 057/086 061/088 060/086 057/079 055/072 052/077
    10/H    00/H    11/B    11/B    34/T    64/T    31/B
BHK 051/086 050/085 055/085 058/086 055/081 052/073 049/075
    00/H    00/U    11/N    21/B    34/T    65/T    42/W
SHR 051/084 050/085 052/086 052/084 050/076 047/072 045/077
    21/H    01/H    21/B    22/W    46/T    65/T    31/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings

NWS BYZ Office Area Forecast Discussion