Harborton, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

037
FXUS61 KAKQ 131450
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1050 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the region this weekend, as another
area of high pressure builds into New England early next week.
This will allow for dry conditions to persist, along with a
modest warmup through Monday. Confidence continues to increase
that a developing coastal low impacts the region by the middle
of next week, resulting in the return of widespread cloud
cover, cooler temperatures, and increasing rain chances.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1050 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Breezy across SE VA/NE NC this afternoon with gusts up to around
  20 mph possible.
Latest analysis shows 1024mb surface high pressure over Atlantic
Canada, with surface ridging extending down the east coast across
our area into the deep south. Meanwhile, a well-defined quasi-
stationary frontal boundary remains draped off the east coast
over the Gulf Stream. The front is oriented beneath a narrow
mid-level trough, which extends down the mid-Atlantic and
southeast coast. A weak area of low pressure is developing along
the front north of the Bahamas and that will continue to drift
NNW offshore of the coastal Carolinas through the weekend.
Aloft, an upper-level omega block pattern remains in place over
the CONUS, with longwave ridging over the nation`s midsection
extending well north into central Canada, on either side of
troughing over QC/New England and the Pacific NW, respectively.
The pressure gradient gradually tightens between the coastal low
well to our southeast, and the high pressure centered to the north.
This will result in increasingly breezy NE winds this afternoon
across SE VA/NE NC. Gusts up to 15-20 mph are possible, with the
highest gusts near/along the coast. The trough to the south is
also responsible for some mid to high level cloudiness and some
scattered showers over the coastal Carolinas. Those showers will
stay well to our south, but partly cloudy conditions are
expected across the southeast coastal plain this afternoon, with
mainly sunny conditions inland. Highs this afternoon in the
mid-upper 70s to lower 80s are expected, with the warmest temps
inland and the coolest temps along the SE coast in increased
cloud cover and onshore flow.
Another cool night is expected tonight with lows in the mid 50s
for most inland areas (locally upper 50s) and mid 60s along the
coast. Some lows in the lower 50s are once again likely well
inland over the piedmont and north of RIC metro.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 255 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Remaining generally dry with near normal temperatures through Monday.
- Breezy conditions are possible along the coast through Monday.
High pressure builds southeast from Canada Sun into Mon. Meanwhile,
a weak coastal low lingers off the Southeast coast. The pressure
gradient between these two features will slacken some on Sun but
tighten again on Mon. As such, breezy conditions will continue to be
possible both days across SE VA/NE NC with stronger winds on Mon.
Wind gusts up to 20 mph are possible Sun along the coast with gusts
up to 20 mph inland and 25 mph along the coast possible on Mon.
Additionally, cloud cover will increase both days with partly sunny
skies Sun (mostly cloudy along the coast) and partly to mostly
cloudy skies everywhere on Mon. However, dry conditions are expected
to continue through at least early Mon. There is a low chance for a
few showers Mon across NE NC and far SE VA, however, confidence is
low (15-25% PoPs). Otherwise, highs in the low-mid 80s Sun and Mon
are expected inland with upper 70s along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 255 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Confidence continues to increase in a coastal low impacting
  the area through the middle of next week with widespread rain
  and breezy winds along the coast possible.
- A warmup is expected by late week.
Aloft, a tall ridge continues to build into Canada next week,
orienting SW to NE through mid-week. Meanwhile, a coastal trough
lingers through midweek. At the surface, a strong area of high
pressure builds SE into New England early next week, ridging into
the local area. Meanwhile, a coastal low lifts north along the coast
through mid-week. While the exact track and timing of the coastal
low remain uncertain, confidence continues to increase in impacts
from the low through the middle of next week with widespread rain
and breezy winds along the coast possible.
The NBM continues to increase with PoPs and now has 30-40% PoPs
across the southern half of the area Mon night, increasing to 35-45%
across the area Tue and Wed. Most model guidance has the low moving
out of the area by Thu with PoPs decreasing to 15-20%. The EPS
continues to show 0.75-1" of rain north of I-64 and 1-1.7" south of
I-64 (highest totals across SE VA/NE NC). The GEPS (Canadian
ensemble) leans towards to the EPS with >1" possible across eastern
VA/NC, however, the GEFS continues to be the low outlier and only
has 

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion