Haukanier, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

163
FXUS64 KHGX 051742
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1242 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
- Hot and humid this afternoon with heat index values generally
  between 102F and 105F .
- Chance of showers and thunderstorms increases over the weekend,
  particularly Sunday. Locally heavier storms possible.
- Hot temperatures and lower humidity expected next week with rain
  chances lingering near the coast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Bountiful sunshine along with hot / humid conditions are in the
cards for this afternoon. As of noon, temperatures are around 90
degrees in most spots, with heat index values approaching 100
degrees. In a few hours, I suspect most areas will be in the mid
90s with heat indices between 102F and 105F. As with any southeast
Texas summer day, we cannot rule out a spotty shower or storm. But
most locations should remain dry.
Over the weekend, our mid/upper flow pattern shifts to a NW flow
regime. Subtle disturbances embedded in the flow aloft will likely
introduce at least some lift into the equation. In addition, the
low-levels will feature a surge of PWAT and the introduction of
convergence thanks to an approaching frontal boundary. Therefore,
we expect the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms to
increase over the weekend. Saturday`s activity appears widely
scattered, justifying 20-30 PoPs. But higher PWATs across our
southwestern counties may boost coverage and enhance the potential
for locally heavier rainfall. Therefore, PoPs increase to near 50
percent in our SW counties near Matagorda. Rain chances increase
further Sunday due to a rise in lift and moisture. The pattern
will be conditionally favorable for a few stronger thunderstorms
on Sunday, though the primary concern will be heavy rain. Weekend
afternoon highs should generally be in the upper 80s to low 90s,
with morning lows averaging in the mid/upper 70s.
Drier air pushes southward across the CWA next week.
Unfortunately, I don`t think we will experience much of a cool
down. In fact, afternoon temperatures are likely to get somewhat
hotter with highs in the low/mid 90s. But the drier push should
bring down the dew points which will lessen the humidity and allow
temperatures to drop more at night. Our northern counties are
expected to experience lows in the 60s. But I would not be
surprised if rural, exurban, non-coastal areas of our southern
counties manage to drop below 70 a night or two next week.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Almost entirely VFR throughout, as long as you ignore the 5SM BR
at LBX right now, that will likely hang on until shortly after
sunrise. Winds will be light and SW-S this morning, becoming S-SE
later today. Main cloud deck will be high cirrus, ahead of
changing weather this weekend.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase over the weekend.
A few locally heavier thunderstorms capable of higher winds and
rougher seas are possible. A frontal boundary pushes offshore on
Sunday. Winds in the wake of the front are expected to increase
from the northeast. Gusts over 20 knots are possible Sunday and
Monday. Seas may increase somewhat during this time frame as well.
Caution flags may be warranted. Winds decrease but remain east to
east-northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. The presence of the
stalled front is expected to keep a daily risk of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast over the Gulf. But drier air is
expected to lower rainfall chances over land.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  75  89  73  87 /   0  20  20  60
Houston (IAH)  77  93  76  89 /   0  20  20  60
Galveston (GLS)  82  90  80  89 /   0  20  30  60
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion