Heathcote, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

178
FXUS61 KOKX 051800
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through early in the week,
moving offshore Tuesday. A cold front will then approach
Tuesday night and pass through Wednesday. This will be followed
by high pressure through late this week. Low pressure may pass
south and east of Long Island sometime this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure remains over the region through the night with similar
conditions to Saturday night. Clear skies and near calm to calm
winds will allow for good radiational cooling. Dew points in the
upper 50s to lower 60s early will fall back into the mid and upper
50s, as temperatures also drop. While the guidance is not capturing
lower levels becoming nearly saturated, Bufkit soundings are
indicating shallow saturation, under strong low level inversion.
Thus, have added fog and clouds late evening into Monday morning. Fog
may be more widespread tonight, with the potential once again of
locally dense fog. Have not gone as low as one - quarter statute
mile visibility, only to one-half statute mile.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The airmass Monday will remain very similar to the previous
couple of days with 850MB temperatures around 14C, and deep
afternoon mixing, with nearly clear skies. Will see similar
highs Monday, in the upper 70s to mid 80s. No record highs are
likely Monday. The surface high remains in place Monday night,
however, the upper ridge axis will be moving offshore late in
the day Monday into Monday night with increased high cloudiness.
Also a little more low level mixing is possible, so not
expecting as much if any fog and stratus Monday night. Heights
fall on Tuesday with surface high moving offshore, and clouds
increasing farther. With the increased cloudiness afternoon high
temperatures will be close to the highs of the previous few
days, just a couple of degrees lower. Dry weather remains
through Tuesday as a cold front approaches to the west.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NBM was followed with no significant changes.
Key Points:
* A cold front moves across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday
  afternoon. Rain showers will be likely with the passage of the
  cold front. There will also be a slight chance for thunderstorms.
  Around 0.75"-1.0" total rainfall is expected across the area.
* High pressure returns Wednesday night into Thursday and remains
  over the area into next weekend. Low pressure may pass south and
  east of Long Island this weekend. NBM has some slight chance POPs
  this weekend for parts of the area. Based on latest 12z forecast
  guidance, it seems conditions will be more dry than wet.
* Temperatures will become much cooler following the passage of the
  cold front with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s on Wed and
  down to the upper 50s to lower 60s Thursday afternoon. Overnight
  lows will also be colder with lows Wed nigh in the upper 30s to
  upper 40s. Thu night will be the coldest with lows in the 40s for
  most, but in the mid 30s across portions of the interior.
  Following Thu night, temperatures warm back closer to seasonal
  averages.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure remains through the TAF period.
For NYC terminals, VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF
period. For other terminals, much of the TAF period is forecast to
have VFR conditions but late tonight into early Monday morning, 04Z-
12Z Monday, MVFR to LIFR conditions are forecast with the
development of fog. The fog could become locally dense with VLIFR
possible.
Regarding winds, they will be generally under 10 kt from a southerly
direction through the TAF period. The winds are expected to become
light, 5 kts or less, with variable direction late tonight into
early Monday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of southerly winds this afternoon at KEWR, KLGA, and KTEB
could be off by 1-2 hours.
Very low chance of MVFR to IFR fog development late tonight into
early Monday morning.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. MVFR-LIFR fog possible early Tuesday morning
for outlying terminals. SW winds G15-20kt Tuesday afternoon into
evening.
Tuesday night-Wednesday: MVFR with showers likely, ending Wednesday
evening. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Chance of IFR at times
Tuesday night into early Wednesday. VFR returns by Wednesday night.
NW wind gusts 15-20kt Wednesday, becoming N late in the afternoon.
Northerly wind gusts 15-20kt at night.
Thursday-Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below SCA thresholds with high pressure
in control through Tuesday. However, as the high moves offshore and
the gradient winds increase, gusts across the western forecast ocean
waters may approach 25 kt late in the day Tuesday.
Winds on waters may near 25 kts Tue night with the approach of a
cold front and remain near 25 kt until well after the passage of the
front through Thursday afternoon. Waves through this period will be
4-5 ft on ocean waters.
Winds and waves are expected to be below SCA criteria Thursday
evening through Saturday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues expected through next weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BR/MET
HYDROLOGY...BR/MET

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion