Hines, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

636
FXUS65 KBOI 202038
AFDBOI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
238 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night...A ridge remains
over the area today with warm temperatures continuing. Mid
level moisture from a system in northern CA is fueling isolated
showers and thunderstorms, mainly along the NV border and the
Blues in OR, and south of the Snake Plain in ID. Gusty outflow
winds up to 40 mph possible in the vicinity of storms. A trough
from the Gulf of Alaska will bring a cold front to the area on
Sunday, which will interact with the moisture already in place.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms form early Sunday
morning ahead of the front, and intensify with the daytime
heating on Sunday afternoon as the front moves east. The shower
threat diminishes in the late afternoon as drier air moves into
the area. The front will bring breezy west-northwest winds
during the afternoon Sunday with gusts up to 20-30 mph. Upper
level ridging returns on Monday with dry conditions, and breezy
west- northwest winds continuing in the Treasure and Magic
Valleys on Monday.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...Summer heat looks to
stick around a while longer, as a potent upper-level ridge
will build in and intensify over the area starting Tuesday. This
will create a classic omega block pattern over the U.S., with a
upper-level low pressure system over California and another
over the midwest. High temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees
above normal during this time. Overnight Wednesday into
Thursday, the California upper-level low begins to get caught in
the flow and move further into the mainland United States.
Before it fully moves east out of our region by Saturday, the
northern extent of the low and associated moisture is not well
agreed upon by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian. The GFS keeps the
center of the low along our southern border with Nevada, while
the ECMWF and Canadian stay south. There is good spread of
differences between the ensemble guidance as well, which could
either lead to dry and temperate conditions or shower activity
with cooler temperatures. This should get ironed out within the
next few deterministic runs, but certainly is something to watch
for any weekend plans.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
have formed along the ID/NV border, south of the Snake Plain, and in
SE/E Oregon. Storm motion is near stationary, with slow motion of 5
kts to the northeast. Main impact from these cells is small hail,
brief rainfall, and gusty winds up to 35 kts with the strongest
storms. Surface winds: variable up to 10 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft
MSL: variable 5-10 kt.
KBOI...VFR. Light showers/isolated thunderstorm possible (15%
chance) overnight. Surface winds NW 5-10 kt, becoming SSE after
sunset.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.
&&
$$
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SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....CH
AVIATION.....CH

NWS BOI Office Area Forecast Discussion