Hobbs, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

039
FXUS64 KMAF 151754
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1254 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1245 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
- Low to medium rain chances today in/near the Davis and
  Guadalupe Mountains (30-50%). Aside from isolated (10-20%) rain
  chances over the higher terrain west of the Pecos River, dry
  conditions are expected for most Tuesday.
- Low (10-25%) shower/thunderstorm chances Wednesday through
  Saturday, mainly in the higher terrain and northern Permian
  Basin.
- Highs remain in the upper 80s and low 90s, rising into the low-
  to- mid 90s for most by the end of the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
An area of upper-level high pressure continues to build near our
region out of Mexico tonight. The ridge`s influence over our area
stays relatively weak due to a trough rolling from the Pacific
Northwest toward the central Great Plains. Later this afternoon,
showers/storms are expected over the higher terrain of west Texas
and southeast New Mexico. Activity should begin to taper down during
the evening hours. Temperatures tonight and Tuesday night settle
into the 50s near the Davis Mountains, 60s elsewhere. Highs Tuesday
warm into the 80s to low 90s. With ridging as our primary weather
maker, rain chances remain low (10-20%), restricted to the higher
terrain on our western periphery Tuesday afternoon, aided by
orographic lift.
Lopez
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
By Wednesday, an upper-level trough begins traversing across the
Plains. It looks like the best forcing associated with this trough
will remain north of our area, and we will remain in quasi-zonal to
northwesterly flow aloft. That being said, small
disturbances/vorticity maxima are expected to round the base of the
main system. These disturbances will provide at least some forcing
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Additionally, the
trough will try to send a front down Wednesday night (which looks
to weaken, retreat north Thursday, then get pushed back down this
direction Thursday night). Right now it appears this front will
stall right before or else just as it reaches our northernmost
zones. In any case, the disturbances, coupled with sufficient
moisture and potentially some lift from the front, imply at least
isolated storms are possible Wednesday through Saturday. The
"best" chances will be in the higher terrain (thanks in large part
to upslope flow) and the northern Permian Basin (10-25%).
High temperatures remain steadily in the upper 80s and low 90s.
By Sunday, ridging builds over the southwestern CONUS. We will
remain on the periphery of the strongest subsidence, but rain
chances will nevertheless diminish. Meanwhile, temperatures will
rise through the rest of the Long Term, reaching the low-to-mid 90s
across much of the area Sunday and Monday.
Sprang
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
VFR conditions prevail at most sites. A few storms are expected
near CNM, HOB, and possibly PEQ later this afternoon and into the
early evening. Winds will generally be out of the south and
southeast, occasionally becoming gusty, especially in the vicinity
of shower/storm activity.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               66  89  65  89 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 64  87  64  87 /  10  10   0  20
Dryden                   68  90  67  90 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            65  88  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           62  79  61  79 /  10  10   0  20
Hobbs                    63  85  62  85 /  10   0   0  10
Marfa                    56  81  56  81 /  10  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     67  89  66  89 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   66  87  66  87 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     65  88  65  88 /   0   0   0  10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...95

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion