Holloway Park, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

740
FXUS62 KMHX 222248
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
648 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to extend over Eastern NC from the
northeast for the next few days, with weak front and coastal
troughing offshore. Another low pressure system will move in
from the west late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 645 PM Monday...
Key Messages
- Monitoring potential for dense fog tonight
Through tonight, high pressure is forecast to remain locked in
across ENC, with coastal troughing situated just offshore. The
gradient between the two is expected to weaken tonight, with
mostly light winds expected areawide. Light winds plus decent
radiational cooling conditions appears supportive of fog
development tonight. The latest short-term hi-res ensemble
guidance give a 50-70% chance of dense fog developing,
especially across the coastal plain. In light of this, we`ll
continue to advertise fog in the forecast, hitting it the
hardest inland. A Dense Fog Advisory may eventually be needed
should the forecast pan out as advertised. One caveat tonight is
cloudcover. Ongoing high clouds are expected to thin out
tonight, but if this doesn`t occur, it could have an impact on
where/if fog develops. Additionally, a weak mid-level shortwave
is forecast to lift NE through the Carolinas tonight, and this
may help pull the coastal trough closer to the coast. If this
happens, lower clouds may develop along the coast, further
decreasing the risk of fog development. Unrelated to fog, this
may also allow a few showers to reach the coast overnight as
well.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Monday...Areas of dense fog may be ongoing early
Tuesday morning, especially inland across the coastal plain. Any
fog that develops should mix out by 9-10 am.
Along the coast, a weak coastal trough may be close enough to
support a few showers, especially from Cape Lookout to Cape
Hatteras. Elsewhere, it looks like the area will remain capped
enough to limit the risk of thunderstorm development, even with
the afternoon seabreeze. A light southerly flow developing
should help temperatures to get warmer than today, reaching the
mid to upper 80s inland, and upper 70s to low 80s along the
coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1 AM Monday...
Key Messages:
- Mostly dry through Wednesday
- Pattern becomes more unsettled late week through the weekend
By Wednesday, these pieces of energy will merge into one large
closed low over the midwest and further strength the surface low
beneath it. This system will be slow to cross the CONUS, but
will eventually be our primary weather maker later in the week.
Wednesday...The ridge aloft will continue to amplify, increasing
heights across ENC and sending high temps to nearly 90 across the
coastal plain and low-80s at the beaches. PoPs remain below
mentionable at this time, but more vigorous updrafts along the
seabreeze could generate a few isolated showers.
Thursday...SW flow and persistent upper ridging will keep temps
around the same on Thursday. Moisture advection will make things
feel a bit muggier, further supporting higher PoPs and greater
likelihood of a few rumbles of thunder.
Friday-Sunday...Heights will fall as the deep trough approaches from
the west, likely not crossing the Appalachians until late Friday
night. Greatest chance for showers and thunderstorms remains to be
Friday-Saturday (50-70%) with the cold front forecast to cross the
area on Saturday. PoPs (20-30%) will linger into Sunday with broad
upper level support remaining over the area.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through TUESDAY/...
As of 645 PM Monday...
Key Messages
- Increased risk of LIFR conditions tonight/early Tuesday AM
High pressure nosing into the area should support light winds
tonight amid mostly clear skies, setting up decent radiational
cooling conditions. There has been a consistent FG signal in the
guidance for tonight, and the latest ensemble guidance
continued this trend, showing a 50-70% chance of LIFR
conditions. Will continue to trend the TAFs more pessimistic
tonight. This sets the stage for widespread IFR/LIFR conditions
tonight, with periods of 1/4SM FG possible. For now, this
appears to be more of a FG signal and less of a low stratus
signal, and this is what the TAFs will reflect. FG should mix
out by 13-14z, with lingering MVFR CIGs possible through about
15z. VFR conditions are then expected for the remainder of the
day.
LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 1:40 AM Monday...
Daytime VFR conditions should persist through mid week, although
chances for late night/early morning fog and low stratus will be
possible. The pattern becomes more unsettled later in the week with
greater PoPs bringing increased chances for sub-VFR conditions
through the rest of the period.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 645 PM Monday...
Key Messages
- Gradually improving conditions across the coastal waters
Northeast winds of 10-15 kt are forecast to lay down to 5-10 kt
overnight as the gradient relaxes across the area. Light
northeast winds are forecast to become southeast by Tuesday
afternoon, but remain light (5-10kt). While winds will be laying
down, seas will be slower to lay down, likely due to the
arrival of long period swell from distant Hurricane Gabrielle.
With this swell, wave heights are not expected to be overly
impressive, but should be 4-6 ft at 11-13s. Because of this,
SCAs will continue into Tuesday for the central waters. Stay
tuned in case the swell ends up stronger than forecast.
Lastly, a coastal trough (currently located about 40-50nm
offshore), is forecast to shift west and north, and may support
a risk of a few thunderstorms for the outer reaches of the
central and southern waters later tonight into Tuesday.
LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 1:50 AM Monday...
NE winds at 5-10 kt will veer to the SE through Tuesday and to
the south on Wednesday. On Tuesday, seas will be 4-6 ft across
the central waters and 4-5 ft elsewhere at 11-12 seconds. Seas
and periods will subside through the day, becoming 3-4 ft at
10-11 seconds on Wednesday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 200 PM Monday...Long period swell from distant Hurricane
Gabrielle will continue to reach the coast of ENC over the next
1-2 days. The latest guidance suggests this will be a 11-13s
swell which is notable, but waves are only forecast to be 3-5
ft, which isn`t as notable. Still, for vulnerable areas outside
of dune protection, some minor runup impacts may occur around
the times of high tide (as was seen near the hotels in Buxton
this morning). At this time, the impact doesn`t appear to be
headline-worthy, but we`ll continue to monitor trends in
guidance and observations in case the swell ends up more
notable.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for AMZ156-
     158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/CQD
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...RM/CQD/OJC
MARINE...RM/CQD/OJC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion