Holmes Beach, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

243
FXUS62 KTBW 230045
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
845 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.UPDATE...
00Z TBW sounding showing the very unstable airmass that the
earlier thunderstorms were able to tap into, likely producing
storms capable of large hail and strong wind in a warned area in
rural Hardee and Desoto Counties as well as additional storms in
surrounding counties. Atmosphere to stabilize shortly with
convection waning and clearing conditions overnight. Drier
conditions remain over the Nature Coast into the Tampa Bay region.
Latest forecasts and grids updated based on radar trends.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Lingering SCT TSRA in SW FL expected to slowly dissipate by 02Z
with VFR conditions overnight into TUE mid day before SHRA/TSRA
develop again tomorrow afternoon mainly in S areas.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
If you think the forecast has been stuck on repeat the past couple
of days, you`d be correct. Moisture over the area will likely be
contained over south central and southwest Florida. Showers and
storms will likely develop later this afternoon before diminishing
early in the evening. However, a few isolated showers and storms can
not be ruled out further north, especially over the interior. The
next few days will be much of the same with afternoon showers and
storms mainly inland and south. Temperatures will be just slightly
above average for this time of year as well. Towards the end of the
week the pattern will start to change as a frontal boundary makes
its way towards Florida. Current models have the front moving
through Florida Saturday into Sunday, increasing rain chances for
the weekend as it does. Unfortunately, this front will not bring
significant cooler temperatures to make it seem more like fall.
The tropics also seem to be waking up with a few areas of interest
on the National Hurricane Centers radar. Major hurricane Gabrielle
is expected to pass east of Bermuda sometime tonight. Two other
areas in the Atlantic also have a chance of developing over the next
7 days. It is still too early to determine the track or strength of
either of these storms, most models do show a NW turn as they
approach the US. However, we will continue to monitor the tropics
and any potential developments.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Mostly northeast to east winds continue through the week, with an
a onshore turn each afternoon as the sea breeze develops. Later
in the week a frontal boundary approaches the waters and winds
shift southwest to west and increase. Afternoon showers and storms
will also bring less than ideal conditions as they over the
waters.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Ample moisture will limit fire weather hazards through the week.
Daily afternoon showers and storms expected, mostly south of I-4.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  92  78  92 /  10  40  10  30
FMY  75  91  75  91 /  40  70  20  50
GIF  75  93  76  94 /  20  60  10  50
SRQ  75  90  75  91 /  20  50  20  30
BKV  71  93  72  93 /  10  40  10  30
SPG  77  89  77  89 /  10  40  10  30
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Davis
DECISION SUPPORT...Fleming
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion