Honey Creek, Iowa Weather Forecast Discussion

035
FXUS63 KOAX 271915
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
215 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above average temperatures will continue into next week with
  highs generally in the lower to mid 80s.
- Dry conditions persist well into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
A dry cold front moved across the area this morning bringing in
drier, slightly cooler conditions for this afternoon. Highs
today will top out a few degrees cooler than yesterday, around
the upper 70s to low 80s.
Surface analysis shows the broad High centered over the Northern
Plains with northerly flow over eastern Nebraska and western
Iowa. As we go into tomorrow morning we`ll see that High shift
eastward bringing back southerly return flow reflected by a
shift to southeasterly surface winds. In the upper-level pattern
we continue to see broad ridging keeping subsidence across the
region. As we go into early next week, we`ll continue to see
southerly flow advecting in dry air from west Texas leading to
continued dry, sunny, mild weather with highs in the low-to-mid
80s.
We see another weak shortwave potentially bring a weak cold
front back through midweek next week, bringing back slight
relief in temperatures, but moisture will continue to be
lacking so no chances for precipitation. We see another ridge
build in toward the end of the week next week keeping dry,
warmer than normal conditions in the forecast likely through
next weekend.
One thing to watch as we get farther along in this dry, warm
pattern is our fine fuel status across the region. Grasses and
croplands will be drying out leading to increasing potential for
fire conditions to become more hazardous. We`ll need to start
monitoring winds and humidity with potential for Red Flag
Warnings, especially as we go into next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
VFR conditions through the TAF period under mostly clear skies.
Winds out of the north today shift to southeasterly by Sunday
morning.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion