Hugoton, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

120
FXUS63 KDDC 181900
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly dry tonight, except far SE counties perhaps
- More storms across central Kansas Friday night into Saturday
- Isolated storms but still warm next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Most of the CAMs have no storms for this afternoon and evening. The
atmosphere should be pretty worked over from all the storms in the
morning. Do have some 15-20% pops across the southeast counties for
that small chance of an isolated storm. Have my doubts though and
would like to think that the entire FA will remain dry tonight. Otherwise,
with the drier conditions prevailing, we should see cooler lows tonight
with values bottoming out in the 50s.
Some of the CAMs have a mesoscale convective complex marching across
central Kansas late Friday night into Saturday morning. Otherwise,
the rest of the FA should remain dry. Highs Saturday should be firmly
in the 80s with lows in a mix of 50s to 60s. Winds should remain
on the light side and eventually will become light southerly as the
day continues into night.
The overall weather pattern for the weekend remains to be slightly
unsettled. An isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out for both
Saturday and Sunday. Confidence though any particular model solution
under this type of weak flow pattern is low. Otherwise, highs will
be warm with values topping out in the 80s and lows in the mix of
50s to 60s.
Both the deterministic GFS and ECMWF as well as some of their ensemble
members show the passage of a front Monday. Showers and thunderstorms
will come back into the forecast with higher pops in association
with this weather system. There is some CAA associated with this
synoptic system, so we might see highs and lows trend cooler as will
go through the middle portion of the next business week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
VFR expected through TAF pd. Light and variable winds.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden

NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion