641 FXUS63 KAPX 291720 AFDAPXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 120 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Anamously warm today, and again Friday into this weekend.
- Dry conditions through at least the end of this week, with a degree of concern toward fire weather at times.
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.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:
Ridge aloft will build across the northern portions of the CONUS during the short term period, with the positive standardized height anomalies maximizing across the Upper Midwest and into Saskatchewan to Ontario, with meaningful anomalies spreading down across northern Michigan. At the surface, one area of high pressure shifts to the east today, with another building to the north across Ontario and influencing northern MI into tonight and beyond. Thus, dry and seasonably warm conditions are expected through tonight.
Primary Forecast Concerns:
Not much in the way of impactful weather through tonight. Anomalously warm and dry conditions are anticipated this afternoon, with high temperatures well into the 70s most areas, a couple spots touching the low 80s. These temperatures combined with dewpoints falling into the 40s across the interior will foster relative humidity in the 20s and 30s. Thus, despite the lack of wind, there is a slight interest towards fire weather/danger this afternoon due to the dry conditions.
Cannot entirely rule out a pocket or two of mist or brief fog into the overnight, but the vast majority of point soundings suggest this potential is relatively low for most, non problematic locations. NBM visibility probs show a very low chance (~10-20%) for
NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion