Idahome, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

818
FXUS65 KPIH 171847
AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1247 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Average to Above Average Temperatures Return
- Showers and Storms Return By the Weekend
- Storms Will Impact Idaho Every Couple of Days Next Week
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1247 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
High pressure builds, bringing dry conditions our way. A shower
or two is still possible through this evening around Bear Lake,
as the last "wave" swings around the low moving into the
Northern and Central Plains. Temperatures creep up again
tomorrow, and will be a handful of degrees above average.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
We will monsoon moisture increasing as we head into the weekend.
The initial surge Friday should only produce some
virga/sprinkles across central and eastern Idaho. Coverage for
showers and isolated storms increases over the weekend. The best
chance of showers and storms Saturday will be across the South
Hills, Albion Mountains, and southeast highlands. Sunday stands
a better chance areawide, but more likely over the mountains.
Rainfall amounts don`t look impressive, but we will need to
monitor rainfall potential and amounts to our southwest in the
next few days. Right now, the deeper moisture surge stays to
our south and east. Outflow winds don`t look too impressive
right based on a likely lack of strong instability each day.
The overall wind (outside of storms) should pick up Sunday as
low pressure scoots by to our north. Early next week looks dry
as high pressure quickly rebuilds over the state. After that, we
have low pressure impacting us every 2-3 days...bringing some
wind and chance for moisture and thunderstorms. Even if we cool
down a bit due to clouds and storms over the weekend, overall
temperatures remain at to just above average.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1149 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
VFR conditions continue under the influence of a ridge of high
pressure. Generally light terrain-driven winds expected.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1247 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
A ridge of high pressure remains in place for the next couple days,
weakening Friday into the weekend under the influence of low
pressure moving in from the Pacific. Some mid-level atmospheric
moisture arrives as early as Friday, allowing for the development of
weak convection. Very dry low levels will preclude much moisture
from reaching the ground, generally leading to virga or at best a
sprinkle for most areas. Slightly better chances arrive for Saturday
into Sunday as shortwave feature ejects east across the region, but
most of the precipitation chances look to remain isolated at best,
and concentrated across higher elevations. Breezy winds are
anticipated but humidities should remain above critical thresholds.
Ridge returns for Monday and Tuesday for a return to dry conditions
all districts. Temperatures throughout remain near to above normal,
likely warmest Tuesday. There is a potential for another system to
arrive mid to late week next week, but models are split on how that
system evolves for now, so we will see how things play out.
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Keyes
LONG TERM...Keyes
AVIATION...DMH
FIRE WEATHER...DMH

NWS PIH Office Area Forecast Discussion