Jamestown, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

876
FXUS61 KAKQ 011902
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
302 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Imelda is expected to track further out to sea today.
High pressure builds in from mid to late week with cooler and
drier weather returning. A warm-up is expected heading into the
weekend, with dry conditions continuing through next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 1010 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Message:
- Breezy conditions today along the coast where gusts of 25-35
  mph are expected.
Hurricane Imelda has made her turn to the east-northeast and is
headed towards Bermuda, while a weakening Humberto is also moving
east-northeast and nearing a developing frontal boundary. The cloud
shield from Imelda still extends across the local area this morning,
with mostly cloudy skies prevailing. High pressure across eastern
Canada extends down across the region and the gradient between this
high and the systems remains tight. Coastal areas are observing
wind gusts of 25-35 mph this morning, and generally less than 20
mph inland. The high has brought in drier, cooler air over the
past 24 hours, with temperatures currently in the lower 60s
(inland) to the lower 70s (along the coast) and dew points in
the upper 50s to lower 60s.
As Imelda continues her trek further out into the western North
Atlantic today, the expansive cloud shield will gradually erode from
northwest to southeast. Northeasterly flow will keep at least
scattered cloud cover along the coast, but mostly clear skies
should prevail elsewhere by this evening. As the high builds
southward across the area, atmospheric moisture will continue to
drop across the region and rain chances will be negligible.
Breezy conditions will persist through the day as the gradient
remains tightened between the high to our north and tropical
cyclones. Wind gusts of 15-20 mph are expected inland, with
gusts of 25 mph to as high as 40 mph possible along the coast.
Today will bring temperatures of around or just below normal in
the lower to mid 70s. Temperatures tonight will be much cooler,
with temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 40s in the
piedmont and in the 50s to the east. This could be the most
optimal night in terms of cloud cover for radiational cooling in
the piedmont, though it will be dependent on if winds decouple
and allow areas to radiate.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 344 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Breezes start to diminish Thursday, with near to slightly
  below normal temperatures and dry conditions expected.
Cooler temperatures will extend into Thursday and Friday as the high
continues to pump in a modified continental airmass across the
region. High temperatures will be in the upper 60s to near 70F
Thursday, followed by temperatures in the lower to mid 70s on
Friday. Winds will finally start to come down on Thursday
through Friday as Imelda moves well away from the U.S. and the
gradient relaxes. The high to our north will slowly slide
southwards and ejects into the western North Atlantic off the
Northeast/Mid- Atlantic coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 344 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Warming temperatures expected this weekend into early next
  week.
High pressure will remain dominant through the weekend, but
temperatures will slowly moderate as an amplified mid-upper level
ridge gradually slides over the East Coast. Highs will be in the mid-
upper 70s Saturday and upper 70s to near 80F Sunday through mid next
week. Overnight lows Friday night range between the mid to upper 40s
inland to the around 60 at the coast. Milder overnight lows are
forecast Saturday night through Tuesday night with lows in the 50s
to lower 60s. Although the air mass will become modified, dry
conditions are anticipated as high pressure remains in place across
the region.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Wednesday...
1034mb high pressure is centered over QB as of 18z and extends
S into PA. Meanwhile, Hurricane Imelda is tracking ENE well off
the Carolina coast. This is creating a strong pressure gradient
with a NE wind of 15-20kt gusting to 25-30k (locally ~35kt at
ECG) and 10-15kt at RIC. VFR with SCT-BKN SC with bases of
3.5-4.5kft. The pressure gradient will gradually relax tonight,
but a NE wind of 10-15kt with occasional gusts to 20-25kt will
persist at ECG. Primarily VFR, but brief MVFR cigs ~2.5kft are
possible, especially toward the coast. Still primarily VFR
Thursday with SCT-BKN SC with bases of 3.5-4.5kft, with brief
MVFR cigs ~2.5kft possible, especially in the morning. A NE wind
will mainly be 8-12kt, and locally 10-15kt with gusts ~20kt at
ORF and ECG.
Primarily VFR conditions are anticipated Thursday night through
Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 255 PM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- SCAs in effect for all coastal waters due to elevated NE winds
  and seas of 5-10ft. Gale warnings have been cancelled.
- Gradually improving conditions through the early weekend, then
  pleasant conditions expected into early next week.
Afternoon sfc analysis and satellite imagery show tropical system
Imelda well offshore to the SE and strong high pressure building in
from the N. NE winds are elevated due to the pressure gradient
between these features as well as CAA over the warm waters. Latest
obs indicate winds over coastal waters and the mouth of the bay are
at ~25kt with gusts to 30kt. Since obs have been under gale warning
thresholds for a few hours, all Gale Warnings have been cancelled
and replaced with Small Craft Advisories. Over the bay, Currituck
sound, and rivers, winds are ~20kt with gusts to 25kt. SCAs are
still in effect for these waters. Seas are 10-12ft based on latest
buoy obs, waves 2-4ft.
Remaining breezy overnight and into tomorrow, though not as windy as
today. Expecting the NE winds to be down to 15-20kt in the bay and
20-23kt over the coastal waters by Thurs morning. Winds are quicker
to diminish Thursday night into Friday as that high pressure really
settles in. Winds should be down to 10-15kt by late Thurs night,
then 5-10kt by Friday evening. Seas will be slower to diminish due
to the persistent onshore flow and lingering swell from the
offshore tropical systems. Expecting seas upwards of 9ft in the
coastal zones Thurs evening and 5-7ft Friday morning. Will
likely see 5ft+ seas for a good chunk of the weekend. For this
reason, did go ahead and set the end time of the coastal water
SCAs to Saturday morning with extensions possible. Much more
pleasant conditions expected late in the weekend and early next
week with high pressure remaining in control.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...
Tidal anomalies are steadily on the rise as expected, already
on the order of 1-1.5 above normal this morning, with additional
another 0.5 to ft of surge expected with the tide cycle this
afternoon and evening, highest across the lower Bay due to the
combination of strong NE winds and wave action/increasing seas
(due to both wind waves and swell).
Tidal guidance continues to show a high likelihood of at least
minor coastal flooding during high tide cycles tonight and into
Thursday for many of our tidal sites, with the highest water
levels occurring during the late aftn/evening high tide cycle
this evening over the lower bay/tidal James. only minor changes
in the tide forecast from yesterday evening`s forecast package.
Another 2-3 cycles of mainly minor flooding is then expected
across most areas from late tonight/early Thu into Thursday
afternoon. Bishop`s Head may approach moderate coastal flood
threshold on Thu, as winds diminish and water potentially gets
stuck in the Ches Bay.
At Sewells Point, the 50th percentile value per ETSS for the Wed
evening tide (5.1 ft MLLW) is just above 5 ft, with the 90th
percentile value (5.4 ft MLLW) just below the Moderate flood
threshold of 5.5 ft MLLW. At Jamestown, 50th percentile
Wednesday night on ETSS (4.6 ft), is just above the Moderate
flood threshold of 4.5 ft MLLW, with the 90th percentile (4.9 ft
MLLW) just below the Major flood threshold of 5.0 ft.
With that in mind, regarding headlines...Maintaining a Coastal
Flood Warning over the upper tidal James, given the current
trends and latest ETSS guidance. Also maintaining a Coastal
Flood Advisory for the Ocean City area, as well as the tidal
Rappahannock and Potomac rivers for late tonight into Thursday
evening. Otherwise, Coastal Flood Advisories were extended out
along southside Hampton Roads and the tidal York River in the
West Point area.
Finally, while the NE winds will keep tide levels just below
minor thresholds for portions of the bay side of the MD eastern
shore through Thursday night, Bishop`s Head and Crisfield will
approach or perhaps exceed minor Coastal Flood Threshold. Did
expand the Coastal Flood Statement to include Wicomico and
Somerset given that Crisfield is now expected to reach minor
flood.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ025.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ025.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ102.
VA...High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ098>100.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Friday for VAZ075>078-522.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for VAZ082-
     089-090-093.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ083-518-
     520.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     VAZ084>086-099-100-523.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ095>098-
     524-525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ632-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJB/NB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/NB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...KMC/NB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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