Jenkins, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

570
FXUS63 KILX 161844
AFDILX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
144 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and dry weather continues through at least Thursday, with daytime
  highs topping out in the upper 80s to low 90s.
- A couple upper systems will bring the return of precipitation
  (20-40% chance) and temperatures cooling slightly Friday
  through early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Rex blocking remains in place over the eastern half of the US with
an expansive area of surface high pressure centered near the eastern
Great Lakes/Northeast US atop low pressure over the Mid-Atlantic
states. Surface ridging extends as far west as the south-central
Plains, which will keep hot and dry weather in place here locally
through at least Thursday. High temperatures as of 1 pm are
sitting in the upper 80s to low 90s with gentle east-northeast
winds keeping a constant feed of dry air over the area. With
minimal cloud cover expected overnight, radiational cooling should
allow lows to easily drop into the middle to upper 50s.
An upper low currently centered over Montana/Wyoming will get pushed
east the next few days by a building ridge to its west. This feature
will bring a much needed pattern change later this week as it begins
to break down the strong upper ridge over the eastern US. The upper
wave will become closed off and slowly work into the Upper
Mississippi Valley through the weekend, bringing occasional chances
for showers and storms (20-40%) Friday through the weekend.
Temperatures will also cool slightly through the weekend, but will
still remain warmer than normal. Rainfall amounts look to be
relatively light through the weekend, with the National Blend of
Models (NBM) suggesting only a 20-30% chance we see over 1 inch of
rain through Sunday night.
A progressive pattern continues into early next week as a more
potent upper trough dives toward the Midwest states, sending a
cold front across the central US. Although exact placement and
timing of this system has been bouncing around with the last
several model cycles, the NBM keeps low-end precipitation chances
over our area through at least Tuesday. Temperatures look to stay
near to above normal through midweek. The Climate Prediction
Center is still advertising a 60-70% chance for above normal
temperatures through the end of September. For reference, normal
temperatures by the last day of September should be in the middle
70s.
NMA
&&
.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
VFR conditions continue through the period with light east-northeast
winds and a few passing high clouds.
NMA
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS ILX Office Area Forecast Discussion