Kanorado, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

675
FXUS63 KGLD 071135
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
535 AM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dense fog is possible this morning. Showers may move across
  the area during the day, with low chances for severe storms in
  the afternoon and evening, mainly west of Highway 25.
- The upcoming week is forecast to see warmer temperatures
  generally in the 80s and 90s. Daily storm chances are
  forecast, including the possibility of severe storms.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 256 AM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Through the early morning hours, high level cloud cover has been
streaming in from the west with some fog trying to develop at the
surface. The higher level cloud cover has been insulating sites so
far, keeping visibility around a few miles and preventing dense fog.
The higher level cloud cover is forecast to linger over the area
through much of the morning, with the upstream trough forcing
moisture over the Rockies. The fog is also expected to continue as
we advect in low level moisture from the southeast, with dewpoints
climbing into the low to mid 50s. While the mid level cloud cover
has done a good job keeping temperatures a few degrees above
dewpoint, we look like we will be able to advect in enough moisture
to bring the dewpoints to the temperatures, giving a chance for
dense fog. The favored area is generally along and south of I-70,
but the entire area will have a chance for dense fog. Will continue
to monitor, but a dense fog advisory may be needed.
For the morning hours, mid-level moisture that is building up along
the Front Range is forecast to push east as an 850mb low moves in
from the west, while the upper trough across much of the Plains and
Great Lakes shifts east and north. This is forecast to give the area
a chance for sprinkles and showers, moving west to east across the
area. Based on current radar observations, the best chances look to
be along and south of Highway 36, as light echoes have been noted
along the Front Range along and south of I-70/Highway 36. These
showers/sprinkles should be sub-severe with relatively stable air in
place from the fog and earlier cloud cover. There is also a chance
that a small dry layer around 850-700mb may be able to have any
precipitation turn into virga. As for the fog, there is a chance
that it could linger to around the noon hour as there doesn`t look
to be much of a push of dry air, which means sunshine will have to
get through and heat up temperatures enough to break the fog.
For the afternoon hours, the low pressure system along the Front
Range is forecast to broaden, potentially covering parts of Eastern
Colorado with its center. For locales that do go under the center of
low pressure, winds may lighten going into the afternoon, while the
rest of the area has winds from the south around 15-25 mph with
gusts up to 35 mph due to mixing and a tighter pressure gradient.
Temperatures should reach around 80 for those who see sunshine,
otherwise temperatures should cap in the 70s.
During the late afternoon and evening hours, showers and storms are
forecast to develop in or near the area. The highest chances favor
Eastern Colorado, where storms are forecast to develop along the
higher terrain and move east. This area is more likely to see
development with a convergence zone near the low center, upslope
flow, and a better chance at clearing and sunshine with showers
moving through earlier in the day (allowing for more instability).
While not super impressive, CAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg, mid level
lapse rates around 8 C/km, and 0-6km shear around 30-40 kts could
allow for one to two storms to sustain themselves and become severe.
If a severe storm does form, the initial threat would be for
hail likely around one inch in diameter. Two inch hail would
likely be the max if a storms remains isolated and alive for
long enough. As the storms moved on, there is a low chance for a
wind gust around 60- 70 mph. The rest of the area also could
see similar threats, but with a much lower chance of storm
occurrence due to the fog, cloud cover, and showers moving
through during the late morning and afternoon hours. Storms
could still form due to a speed convergence boundary forecast to
set up east of the Colorado border due to the surface low. It
is just if they do form, the environment may be too stable for
anything strong to develop. In short, most of the area has a
chance for shower/storms while there is a low chance for severe
weather, mainly west of Highway 25 from storms moving in from
the west.
For the rest of the night, a mix of clouds and clear skies are
forecast. There is a chance that a few showers and storms could
linger for most of the night. If there is no precipitation, fog may
become a concern again, with continued moisture advection from the
south. Prior cloud cover could keep any fog from becoming dense by
limiting how much temperatures cool. Lows should reach the 50s and
60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 109 PM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
The long-term will see a pattern that we saw a lot of this
summer. A ridge will be set up over the Four Corners and Great
Basin region as a low over the Great Lakes slowly pushes off to
the east and another low moves over the northwestern CONUS. The
ridge and northwesterly flow will dominate the CWA into Tuesday.
The speed of the northwestern low will determine when the
northwesterly flow will break apart.
Tuesday, as the northwestern low breaks down the ridge, the low
looks to slow to a crawl over the northern Rockies and have
potentially Fujiwara if the center of the low splits. This will
be the pattern that dominates the long-term: 500 mb high shifts
its axis over the central Great Plains and the slow moving 500
mb low over the Northern Rockies, with the 850 mb level seeing a
high pressure system over the mid and southern Mississippi
River Valley regions as weak lows eject off the Northern
Rockies. This will allow a southerly LLJ to funnel mid and low-
level moisture into the CWA as well as warmer temperatures. Due
to the heat, moisture, and weak cold fronts, there will be a
nearly daily 20-30% chance of showers and weak storms across the
area. Currently, no guidance is showing a strong cold front
moving through the area, as the upper-level low remains somewhat
stationary. If a stronger low and cold front can eject off the
the Northern Rockies, all the ingredients will be in place for
severe storms. The NBM does not seem to be reflecting the
precipitation potential well in this setup. This means the PoPs
shown in the local forecasts on our web page are lower than what
forecaster confidence in precipitation is. Overall, forecaster
confidence in: daily showers and weak storms forming is 20-30%;
at least one day (Tues-Fri) seeing showers and weak storms is
70-75%; confidence in severe weather occurring at least one day
Tuesday- Friday is 10-15%.
Temperatures throughout the next week will warm into the mid to
upper 80s with a few places seeing low 90s. Low temperatures
will cool into the upper 50s to mid 60s as low level moisture
and cloud cover will keep us fairly warm.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 521 AM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
For KGLD... The period is forecast to start with ceilings around
500ft for the first hour or two, along with some fog keeping
visibility between 3-6SM. This should persist until either rain
showers move in from the west, or the sun breaks through the
clouds around 16-18Z. Once any rain passes and the clouds break,
VFR conditions are forecast through the remainder of the period.
There is a chance for storms this evening between 00-06Z, with a
5% chance for a severe storm that produces large hail. Winds
should generally remain from the south, but could have gusts up
to 30 kts during the afternoon and early evening hours.
For KMCK... The period is forecast to start with some fog
lowering visibility to around 3-6SM. This should continue for
the first few hours of the period until a little bit after
sunrise. For the remainder of the day, VFR conditions with winds
from the south are forecast. That being said, there will be a
few things to keep an eye on. Showers during the day and storms
during the evening are forecast to stay south, but that doesn`t
mean that one couldn`t stray north into the terminal. Overnight
tonight, there is another chance for low ceilings and fog
depending on how much low level moisture remains in place. There
is also a low chance for low level wind shear. The low level jet
is forecast to pick up tonight, but the 850mb low may be just
enough to keep the jet east of the terminal.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KAK

NWS GLD Office Area Forecast Discussion