Kemp, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

784
FXUS64 KOUN 011125
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
625 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 623 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
- Unseasonably warm temperatures and mainly dry conditions to
   persist through most of the week.
-  Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning late
   Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
A strong low-level jet beneath weak warm air advection will
continue to foster the development of mid-level clouds around
10-12K feet. By sunrise, some of this cloud cover may be
associated with a few light rain showers, mainly across
northwestern Oklahoma. By mid to late morning, the cloud cover
should erode with mainly clear conditions for the rest of the day.
Otherwise a southerly wind will prevail today with temperatures
climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
A low-level jet will be weaker Wednesday night and any chances for
light showers will be north of Oklahoma.  It still appears the
center of a mid and upper ridge over northern Mexico will build
north and east Thursday into Friday. This will bring well above
average temperatures and dry conditions. The wind will also remain
on the light side, with parts of western Oklahoma seeing an increase
in gusts during the afternoon hours each day.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Model guidance remains consistent in tracking a shortwave trough across
the Intermountain region and into the central and northern Plains
Saturday into early Sunday. With better forcing remaining north,
rain and storm chances will remain low (less than 20 percent)
across northern Oklahoma. However, this system may push a cold
front into or close to northern Oklahoma by late Sunday into early
Monday morning. This would bring a better chance of precipitation
to northern parts of Oklahoma. Models diverge by early next week
with the strength and position of a mid-level ridge. Regardless,
there still appears to be a low chance (20%) of showers/storms
across mainly southeast Oklahoma and western and northern Oklahoma
Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Scattered light rain showers are occurring this morning across
northwest Oklahoma and will continue over the next few hours
before decaying. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected through the
period at all sites with light south-southeasterly winds and gusty
winds possible at WWR/CSM this afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  87  65  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         90  64  91  63 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  90  63  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           88  63  90  64 /  20   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     88  63  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         88  63  90  65 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...23

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion