Kintyre, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

855
FXUS63 KBIS 271421
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
921 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above average temperatures and occasionally breezy conditions
  continue through the middle of next week.
- Mostly dry conditions this weekend and into the beginning of
  next week. Low rain chances return for the latter half of next
  week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 921 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Quiet morning weather-wise. Forecast remains on track for the
day.
UPDATE
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Clear skies and light winds have allowed temperatures to drop
a bit more than forecast, especially in the traditionally
cooler spots. This means some locations have dipped into the mid
30s. Temperatures will rapidly rebound today as the sun rises.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Warm, occasionally breezy, and mostly dry conditions are
expected to continue for this weekend and into the middle of
next week. For this afternoon, breezy conditions are likely for
parts of the area as surface high pressure moves across South
Dakota, and the western/northern portions of the state remain on
the gradient. Southerly surface winds will help maintain high
temperatures that, while cooler than previous days, are still
seasonably warm and mostly in the 70s with a few 80 degree
readings possible. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny skies with
some elevated smoke that may lead to at least partially milky
skies at times.
For Sunday, breezy conditions are possible again, though this
time more so in south central and eastern ND, as aforementioned
surface high gradually migrates eastwards. Continued southerly
flow at the surface and an amplifying ridge will lead to well
above average temperatures in the 80s. As the ridge continues
amplifying before finally reaching a peak amplitude over the
Great Lakes region by Wednesday, well above average temperatures
(upper 70s to mid 80s) will continue through the first half of
next week. In addition, occasionally breezy conditions are
expected during this timeframe as surface high migrates from
south central Canada towards the Great Lakes Region, and surface
low simultaneously sets up over the High Plains and gradually
propagates northward into south central Canada.
Models have generally backed off low precipitation chances to
start the workweek and pushed them more into the middle and
especially end of next week. And even then, chances remain
relatively low through Thursday as weak shortwave energy rides
the western periphery before breaking down the ridge. At this
point, what may be most interesting is just outside the
traditional 7 day forecast range. The past few runs of both the
EC and GFS, and to a lesser extent the latest Canadian, have
indicated a potential warm season (snowless) Colorado Low
developing and coming through the region. While it`s too early
to know details, or if the system will even occur, it
definitely falls into the "interesting" category. Regardless of
precipitation potential, confidence is increasing in a cooling
trend if nothing else that may bring temperatures back down to
more seasonable levels.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
VFR ceilings and visibility are expected through the period.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion