Lagrange, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

092
FXUS61 KCLE 221154
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
754 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will linger across the central Great Lakes
before drifting south towards the region on Tuesday night. This
front will stall over the area on Wednesday as a low pressure
system tracks from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Central
Great Lakes on Thursday. A surface trough lingers across the
area on Friday and Saturday before high pressure builds into the
region by Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
6:45 PM Update...
Made some updates to the hourly PoPs through today to account
for latest observations and trends in model guidance. This
allows for cuts to PoPs through this morning. Also added patchy fog
to the forecast for late tonight into early Tuesday morning for
a good chunk of Northwest Ohio. Most model guidance have pretty
soupy conditions developing in the wake of the precipitation
shield that moves across the area this afternoon/evening.
Previous Discussion...
An upper-level low moves eastward into the northern Great Lakes
region, with broad southwest flow continuing across the Ohio
Vally and vicinity through tonight. A shortwave trough will
navigate this flow, moving into the Ohio area later this
afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected through this morning with the synoptic-scale lift,
though should see an uptick in shower/storm coverage after
~19/20Z from the southwest and spreading eastward through the
evening and overnight hours. Compared to previous forecasts, the
main PoP/QPF axis has shifted to the east slightly, with most
persistent rain and highest QPF expected along and east of
I-71.
Steady southwest flow upstream has led to a moist warm sector
characterized by PWAT values in the 1.55-1.65" range, which is
climatologically equivalent to the ~95th percentile. Abundant
moisture should not only contribute to meaningful QPF totals
(~50-60% of >0.5") but thunderstorms will be able to produce
heavy downpours. Flooding is very unlikely, and in fact we
expect this rain will be quite beneficial considering widespread
drought conditions.
A coordinate of instability is likely to build into the
1000-1500 J/kg range this afternoon, with contributions from
advection of warm, moist air, and daytime heating. While there
is some uncertainty with expected morning cloud cover, the
general consensus is that there will be enough breaks in clouds
for temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 70s. Moderate
mid-level flow will contribute to about 25-30 knots of deep-
layer shear, which is sufficient for organized convection. This
is largely the reason for the broad day 1 SPC marginal
convective outlook. However, when digging into the details,
there are a lot of things inhibiting the severe weather
potential:
*Mid-level dry air is lacking for descending downdrafts.
*Mid-lelvel lapse rates are poor for large hail.
*Low-level shear (in the 0-1km layer and 0-3km layer) are poor
 and unfavorable for tornadoes and sustained QLCS winds.
*00Z HREF helicity tracks are lower and shifted south of our
 forecast area compared to previous runs
*GEFS ML has lower probabilities compared to previous runs and
 generally less than 5% for our forecast area.
So while there is broad, general support for severe weather this
afternoon/evening, the most likely scenario is that we see a few
of the stronger thunderstorms (especially in the southeast
quadrant of our forecast area; i.e. Akron, Canton, Youngstown
area) that may produce gusty, sub-severe winds, small hail, and
heavy downpours.
Rain probably lingers in eastern Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania, into Tuesday, though we should see greatly
diminished coverage of showers and thunderstorms during the day
Tuesday and the shortwave trough departs to the east. PoPs were
cut by 20-30% compared to the previous forecast down to a 30-60%
range, and even that may be too high at this point.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The upper-level low that was situated over the northern Great
Lakes makes it way southeast across the Great Lakes region
through the short term period, with the trough axis over the
forecast area around 00Z/Friday. At the surface, we see the
stationary settle over our forecast area as a surface low
develops over the Mid-Missippi Valley and lift northeast to the
central Great Lakes by Thursday. There will be a chance of rain
showers in the forecast Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly due
to spread in the model data. However, precipitation chances rise
more substantially Wednesday night and Thursday into the 70-80%
range areawide as that low moves across the area. Meaningful
QPF is expected to continue chipping away at drop continues,
with the probability of >0.5" in the 40-50% range. Scattered
thunderstorms may be possible as well Thursday afternoon,
contributing to locally higher amounts. Despite all these
features, temperatures are forecast to be pleasant and near the
climatological normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Despite the upper-level trough and low pressure system departing
to the east, a surface trough may linger longer enough for
isolated to scattered showers on Friday and Saturday. High
pressure finally builds in by Sunday, with precipitation
unlikely then. Temperatures will be about as average as they get
with highs remaining in the 70s and lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Most of the area remains in a lull this morning, with generally
VFR prevailing. Scattered showers and thunderstorms over Lake
Erie will likely clip KERI between 13 and 14Z, but otherwise, we
are still expecting the main period of fairly widespread showers
and thunderstorms to move in from southwest to northeast in the
14 to 18Z timeframe. Confidence remains low regarding how
quickly cigs and vis will drop to MVFR/IFR in this precip this
afternoon, but a slow decrease in flight categories is expected
this afternoon and evening. The best chance for heavier
thunderstorms is at KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG in the roughly 20-23Z
timeframe, but they can occur anytime, any place today.
The steadiest showers will slowly exit eastward this evening
through tonight, but it will take until 10-12Z to end in far NE
Ohio and NW PA. Unfortunately, fog will quickly develop as the
showers end, so continued the trend of expanding fog tonight,
especially at KTOL, KFDY, and KMFD where the rain will end
sooner.
S to SW winds will average 5-10 knots through today, becoming
light and variable tonight. Some gusts of 20-25 knots will
continue at KERI at times through mid afternoon.
Outlook...Periodic non-VFR are expected with scattered showers
and thunderstorms through Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Relatively quiet conditions will continue on Lake Erie other
than scattered thunderstorms this afternoon that could bring
locally higher winds and waves.
SW winds will decrease to 5-10 knots today, becoming E to NE at
5-10 knots by late Tuesday and Tuesday night. E to NE winds will
then increase to 10-15 knots Wednesday before turning SE and
increasing to 15-20 knots Wednesday night into Thursday as
another wave of low pressure approaches the lake. As this low
exits northeastward, winds will veer to SW and decrease to 5-15
knots behind a cold front Thursday evening through Thursday
night and eventually N to NW at 5-10 knots by Friday as high
pressure attempts to build in from the Upper Midwest.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Garuckas

NWS CLE Office Area Forecast Discussion