Lake Nepessing, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

979
FXUS63 KDTX 080833
AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
433 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Highs near 70 degrees today.
- Continued dry weather with a gradual warming trend through the
rest of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
High pressure holds over the region today and tonight, promoting
very light winds and clear-mostly clear skies. Any shallow ground
fog should dissipate 13-14z. With light southeast flow coming off
Lake Erie by this evening, higher surface dew pts may make inroads
into the southern TAFS, which brings a low chance of light fog late
tonight as well.
THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* None
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
DISCUSSION...
Despite rising geopotential heights, a remnant steep 900-700mb lapse
rate pocket combined with moisture fluxing off of the Great Lakes
has led to some isolated lake effect shower activity on the downwind
portions of Lake Huron and Lake Erie. Models strongly suggest that
increasing thickness will erase any lingering midlevel instability
very rapidly during the next 3 to 6 hours. No shower activity is
anticipated over Southeast Michigan. Climatological considerations
with clear skies and nil fog brings concern for shallow ground fog
this morning particularly outside of the Detroit urban heat island.
Will monitor visibility trends this morning.
Center of midlevel high pressure will push across portions of
northern Lower Michigan today resulting in strongly anticyclonic and
isentropic downglide trajectories today. Strong signal exists in the
model soundings for both a warming and drying of the midlevels.
Really expecting full insolation today with highs right around 70
degrees.  Another outstanding day on Tuesday with return flow
gradually becoming established out of the south and southeast. Not
expecting much moisture transport which will give another of nearly
full insolation. Highs Tuesday will take a good bump upward into the
middle 70s. An extended run of warmer (highs around 80/low 80s) and
low humidity (dewpoints in the 40s to 50s) will then carry the area
through at least Saturday. Only feature to monitor is a washed
out/frontolytic cold front that will settle and stall out over Lower
Michigan late Wednesday through Friday. This boundary will be on the
southern edge of a cold Canadian high pressure system that does not
show any equatorward push. Looks like a high predictability
feature with model guidance keeping it bottled up north.
MARINE...
Upper level ridging continues to build into the region for the start
of the new week. Surface high pressure has also moved into the
region from the south which will back the winds to the south for
today. This will provide a break from the cooler pattern we`ve been
in the last week as warm advection brings stability to the waters. A
cold front will drift into the northern Great Lakes Tuesday and
stall out and weaken through Wednesday. This could provide some
showers and gusty southwesterly winds across northern Lake Huron but
high pressure will dominate most of the region through mid week.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....SF
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......DRK
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NWS DTX Office Area Forecast Discussion