Lakeview, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

630
FXUS65 KREV 022019
AFDREV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
119 PM PDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* The best chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through
  Friday as the low pressure system drops into the region.
* Temperatures remain below average through the upcoming week,
  with Friday seeing the lowest temperatures along with light snow
  above 8000 ft on Friday morning.
* Drier and cool conditions prevail this weekend through much of
  next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
We got a wet start this morning in many areas, especially over
the Sierra near the Tahoe Basin. Portions of the Sierra have
received around 0.5-1.0 inch of rain including the Sierra crest
and Plumas county. All due to the upper low finally moving inland
this morning, while pulling a decent plume of subtropical
moisture resulting in PWs increasing to 0.7 to 0.9 inches. Those
PW values are way too high for this time of the year. There was
not a lot of instability this morning which is why we had no
lightning, but this afternoon we get marginal instability mainly
close to the Sierra and over the Basin & Range.
These showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through
much of the overnight hours. The latest HREF and CAMs persist
showing strong bands of numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon over the Tahoe Basin, then
progressing into the Sierra Front this afternoon through 6-8 PM.
The main concern will be heavy rain over burn scars and urban
areas, where localized flooding will be the main impact. However,
the CAMs are showing a lot of breaks around the Sierra Front
overnight. So, even though we have high POPs, upwards of 60%, the
opposite scenario shows not a lot of rain after midnight in the
Sierra Front.
The area of concern for heavy rain moves into the NV Basin and
Range around 8-10 PM and through the rest of the overnight hours.
EFI and other models that look at anomalies are hitting the Basin
and Range with significant accumulations of rain. Therefore, keep
an eye for any long periods of heavy rain in those areas, as they
can potentially lead to more than just localized flooding. At
least we have seen the showers moving quite fast this morning, and
models agree on keeping similar motions tonight, which should
help reduce some of the risk for flooding.
By Friday morning, we should be behind the axis of the trough and
the cold front. This will lead to a colder morning with morning
lows in the 40s up to 50F over western NV, and the 30s in Sierra
communities. We may get some light snow below an inch in elevations
above 8000 ft, and up to 3-5 inches near the peaks (above 9000
ft) on Mono County. Otherwise, wet conditions persist for the rest
of the area. However, the rain and isolated storms will be more
sporadic and spotty in nature leading to a lower risk for heavy
rain.
Saturday and beyond, we clear out before sunrise. Although the
cool weather and below average temperatures are expected to
persist through mid-week next week. However, we get some gradual
warming after Tuesday behind another weak upper level system.
-HC
&&
.AVIATION...
* Generally VFR conditions continue through the afternoon. The
  exceptions will be for KTRK/KTVL as SHRA and -TSRA may reduce
  CIGS and VIS to MVFR or IFR with the strongest activity.
* Light to moderate rainfall with MVFR to local IFR for western NV
  terminals are likely after 18-20z to around 10-12z Friday. Low
  level cloud decks leading to mountain obscurations in the Sierra
  continue through Friday. Additional chances for showers
  continue areawide into Friday evening.
* Winds are overall light for all terminals today, with sustained
  winds around 10 kts and gusts to 20 kts. Watch for gusty
  outflows near SHRA/-TSRA. Some minor turbulence and LLWS is
  expected through this evening. -McKellar/HC
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$

NWS REV Office Area Forecast Discussion