Leavenworth, Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

644
FXUS63 KLMK 101747
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
147 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
*  Continued dry with temperatures climbing from the low/mid 80s into
   the upper 80s to low 90s by the weekend
*  Elevated fire weather threat as we remain dry with very warm
   temperatures.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1118 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
We`ve expanded PoPs toward the I-65 corridor over the next few hours
as scattered showers continue to push across western portions of the
CWA. Satellite and radar trends, supported by SPC mesoanalysis,
suggest that the area of sufficient lift and moisture for clouds and
showers is fairly narrow, and should continue to push to the east
through the day today. Soundings do show a narrow layer of
instability between 800-600 mb with this feature later today, so
additional isolated showers will be possible this afternoon,
especially along and west of I-65.
Issued at 843 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
A subtle shortwave sliding across the Wabash Valley this morning has
kicked off a few showers across southwestern IN and western KY, as
well as a much more expansive mid-level cloud deck. Soundings show
near-saturation within the 850-600 mb layer, with drier air between
the sfc and 850 mb. Given the depth of saturation and ongoing
isolated pockets of reflectivity around 40 dBZ, think that some of
these showers will make it to the surface. Have updated the forecast
by adding a slight chance PoP over portions of Dubois, Perry, and
Hancock County. While these showers are expected to weaken later
this morning, the area of >15% PoPs may need to be expanded eastward
given subsequent radar trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 344 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Our weather will remain quiet and dry but with noticeably warmer
temperatures in the afternoon. Weak system over the plains will
slowly move eastward as an upper shortwave trough works into the
Great Lakes later tonight. High clouds associated with this system
will start to spread over the area with some scattered high clouds
and we could see scattered Cu field develop in the afternoon. Highs
will be warmer but closer to seasonal normals for this time of year,
in the mid to upper 80s. This is the start of a warming trend
through the rest of the week and into the weekend. With warmer
temperatures and some mixing in the afternoon, dew points could drop
into the 40s resulting in RH values in the 20 percent range. As we
remain abnormally dry, and see temperatures start to warm back into
the mid/upper 80s, we will start to see an elevated fire weather
threat. The one factor that does help is our winds are expected to
remain light.
As the aforementioned shortwave works across the Great Lakes and the
Ohio Valley tonight, some clouds and there is even the slightest
chance of a sprinkle but confidence is low as the overall column
remains mostly dry tonight even into the day tomorrow. Going to keep
any precipitation chances at or below 10 percent, for the
possibility of a few sprinkles. Lows will not be as cool and more
mild as they drop into the mid 50s across the Blue Grass to low 60s
as you move along and west of I-65.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 344 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
As we go through the end of the week and into the weekend the story
becomes the rising temperatures and continued dry weather across the
region. Highs will begin to warm into the upper 80s to even to the
low 90s by the end of the weekend. This will bring a return to
summer warmth as well as an elevated fire weather threat give our
prolonged dry spell which has resulted in abnormally dry to moderate
drought conditions across central KY.
Upper ridge over the central plains will continue to amplify
northward and expect eastward over the Ohio Valley by the weekend. A
weak shortwave trough axis mentioned in the short term forecast will
still be over our eastern and southern CWA during the day on
Thursday. As was pointed out in previous discussion, models may be a
little underdone on the precipitation chances but give the overall
dry column and most of the moisture coming from the mid-levels, if
any precipitation falls it would likely be virga or a few sprinkles.
Will continue to go with silent PoP (10% or less) during the day
Thursday. After Thursday, we were looking at Sunday into Monday as
our next shot at precipitation as a closed upper low over the Hudson
Bay and into New England helps to work a cold front into the region.
Models are starting to back off on precipitation as the upper ridge
appears to hold stronger over the Ohio Valley than once originally
thought.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
A weak disturbance is bringing an area of light rain showers and
mid-level clouds to the region. Most of these showers are passing
between SDF and BWG this afternoon, so we`ll keep a dry forecast for
now. At this time, even if a shower does impact a terminal, impacts
should be limited, with visibilities only dropping to around 5-6 SM.
A chance for an isolated shower at SDF/BWG/HNB will continue this
evening into the early overnight hours, with expected coverage and
impacts being low enough to keep a dry forecast going. Winds will be
variable between SW and NW this afternoon and evening, with speeds
mainly less than 10 kt.
Early Thursday morning, some patchy fog may bring IFR/MVFR
visibilities at HNB/BWG/RGA; however, there is some uncertainty as
to whether lingering mid-level clouds will limit fog potential.
Otherwise, light and variable winds are expected tonight into
Thursday morning.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...CSG

NWS LMK Office Area Forecast Discussion