Leesville, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

756
FXUS64 KLCH 061733
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1233 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated shower activity will continue through this evening
  ahead of a cold front that will push through the region
  overnight into early Sunday.
- Slightly below normal temperatures, especially night time lows,
  and noticeably drier air is expected in the wake of the front
  throughout early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Saturday morning surface analysis shows a cold front draped across
central LA, while aloft troughing extends from the Great Lakes to
the Gulf Coast, dominating much of the eastern CONUS. This cold
front will be the main story through the short term, as it pushes
south into the Gulf over the next 24 hours or so. Until then,
moisture remains elevated across the forecast area, leading to
isolated showers and thunderstorms that are already ongoing across
south LA/SE TX and will continue through the remainder of this
afternoon. Away from convection, another warm and sunny day is on
tap with highs reaching into the upper 80s to low 90s once again.
Tomorrow, the cold front makes its way into the Gulf waters where it
will stall out for a bit. Behind the front, moisture remains
slightly elevated through the daytime hours today, before upper
level troughing allows drier air to filter into tomorrow
evening/night. Ahead of the drier air, a few isolated showers may be
able to get going tomorrow however, chances are rather low and
guidance is really not too keen on the idea. While drier air will be
a bit slow to arrive post-front, slightly cooler air is expected
tomorrow, with highs topping out in the mid to upper 80s.
By Monday morning dewpoints should be in the 50s areawide, only
`warming` into the upper 50s/low 60s by Mon afternoon. Highs top out
in the mid to upper 80s once again, and with lower dewpoints/less
humidity it should make for a very pleasant start to the work week.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Moving into the long term, weak upper level ridging lingers across
the southern US keeping a mainly dry NWrly flow in place aloft. At
the surface, a series of high pressure ridges moving across the
Great Lakes/New England/Appalachia will continue to provide a NE to
E flow through the end of the work week. This will result in a very
quiet and uneventful long term period, with little to no chance for
shower activity. While a dry pattern will linger, dewpoints do begin
to creep up by Wednesday into the upper 60s/low 70s, while PWATs
return to near the daily average (according to SPC Climo).
Temperature wise, highs near seasonal norms are expected for Tues,
followed by a warming trend Wed-Sat, with highs topping out in the
low to mid 90s through this period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Light mainly N to NE winds and VFR conditions will prevail
throughout the forecast period. Isolated shower activity is
ongoing mainly near the coast at this time, but may expand north
towards the I-10 terminals through the next few hours. Therefore,
kept VCSH mentioned through the afternoon/evening. Tomorrow, dry
air slowly filters into the area which should largely suppress
rain chances and keep VFR conditions in place.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
A cold front moving across central LA will approach the coastal
waters overnight, eventually moving into the marine zones tomorrow
morning where it will linger through the early work week.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through tomorrow
ahead of/near the front, with rain chances decreasing tomorrow
night. Light and variable winds continue today ahead of the
front, followed by a modest offshore flow developing overnight and
continuing through the next few days behind the front. Offshore
winds along with seas will be increasing late Sun into Monday as
high pressure builds down from the Midwest and briefly tightens
the pressure gradient overhead.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Moisture will increase today ahead of a cold front that will bring a
chance for showers and thunderstorms into Sunday. Afternoon minimum
relative humidity are expected to be near or above 60 percent today
and near or above 50 percent on Sunday. Significantly drier air will
move in by Monday, ending rain chances and bringing afternoon
minimum relative humidity values below 40 percent.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  66  85  62  85 /  10  10   0   0
LCH  71  87  68  87 /  20  30  10   0
LFT  71  88  66  87 /  10  20   0   0
BPT  72  87  69  88 /  30  40  10  10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion