Lenora, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

509
FXUS63 KGLD 210514
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1114 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
-May have strong thunderstorms move through the northwest
 quadrant of the forecast area late evening/after midnight.
 Heavy rain and accumulating small hail should be the main
 threats with the strongest storms.
- Another chance for fog, possibly dense, Sunday morning.
- Strong to severe storms may return to the area Monday
  afternoon and evening.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 544 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Main change to the forecast was to increase rain chances to
20-30% for most of the forecast area for tonight. Near term
model data is indicating another upper level short wave trough
moving through the forecast area late this evening into the
overnight hours. Based on RAP soundings, the highest instability
will be over the northwest part of the forecast area.  The deep
layer shear is around 30 kts, but the instability may be a bit
higher than what was available this afternoon. If storms can tap
into the higher instability, which would be a rather narrow
layer, they could be near severe criteria. The strongest storms
will not have an inversion to hinder any wind being pushed to
the ground, so strong winds could reach the ground from these
storms tonight. As the storms move over the southeast half of
the forecast area the instability lowers, so storms should be
less intense as they continue over the southeast part of the
forecast area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Synoptic Overview: A complex, disjointed synoptic pattern
characterized by (1) a sinuous, speedy northern stream jet at
higher latitudes in Canada and (2) a speedy, increasingly
sinuous southern stream jet along the southern Pacific Coast,
Desert Southwest and 4-Corners.. will prevail over the weekend.
While the Tri-State area will be in closest proximity to the
southern stream jet, the nearby presence of (and interaction
with) a fractured branch of the northern stream jet..
manifesting as a broad, complex upper low / cyclonic flow aloft
over the Northern Plains.. introduces additional
complexity/uncertainty with regard to forecast specifics.
Today: As of 17 UTC, widespread morning stratus has finally
lifted/scattered-out in most locations, except southern portions
of the area (along/south of Hwy 40).. in closer proximity to
ongoing elevated showers south of Hwy 96 (Hamilton/Kearney
counties). Weak forcing and a considerable amount of convective
inhibition (~100-300 J/kg MLCIN) will likely preclude in-situ
convective development across the majority of the area today.
Scattered diurnal convection emanating from the Colorado Front
Range, Cheyenne Ridge and/or Palmer Divide may track E (via ~15
knot W steering flow) into portions of eastern CO during the
mid-late afternoon, when/ where MLCIN will be weaker (~25-50
J/kg). Even if this occurs, convection would likely weaken.. and
ultimately dissipate.. with eastern extent (especially east of
the CO-KS border). Modest instability/shear (500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE, 20-30 KT EBWD) and moderately steep (~7.5 C/km) mid-
level lapse rates are not particularly conducive for severe
weather in the context of this setup, though.. brief/transient
updraft organization is a possibility in eastern CO.
Tonight: Strengthening southerly flow and low-level warm
advection on the eastern periphery of a developing SFC-850 mb
trough in the lee of the southern Rockies (NM, TX-OK
Panhandles).. presumably aided by small amplitude disturbances
and/or cyclonic shear vorticity on the E and NE periphery of the
southern stream jet advancing across the southern Rockies/High
Plains.. may assist in the development of elevated convection
over central-southern KS late tonight (06-12 UTC Sun). Northern
stream shortwave energy situated over northern WY at 18 UTC (per
SPC Mesoanalysis 400-250 mb Pot Vort) will track ESE into the
NE Panhandle (this evening) and central-southern NE (by 12 UTC
Sun).. potentially aiding in convective development over north-
central KS late tonight (06-12 UTC Sun). In either (or both)
scenarios, convection allowing guidance suggests that said
activity would be relegated to far eastern portions of the
Goodland CWA.. and that locally heavy rainfall would likely be
the primary hazard. Dense fog may develop over portions of the
area Sunday morning (similar to this morning), though.. with
upper level cloud cover and the possibility of elevated
convection over eastern portions of the area.. the areal extent/
coverage of fog (or fog/stratus) is somewhat difficult to
ascertain at this time.
Sunday: Subsidence in the wake of the aforementioned northern
stream wave.. and a worked-over airmass in the wake of AM
convection in central KS.. suggests relatively little potential
for convection during the afternoon and evening hours.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Long range guidance continues to suggest that a closed low will
develop over the central-northern Rockies/High Plains early
next week. If this is the case, one would expect active/ dynamic
weather. Below average confidence in forecast specifics.
Forecast confidence typically decreases with range. Below
average, in this context, is intended to communicate a further
reduction in confidence associated with /inherent-to/ increased
pattern complexity, e.g. patterns characterized by cut-off waves
and multi-branched jet/wave interactions, among other factors.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1113 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Isolated showers and thunderstorms overnight have a low
probability, less than 20%, of impacting either KGLD or KMCK.
There will be a period of low ceilings and patch fog early this
morning at both terminals with IFR conditions and possibly brief
VLIFR conditions. A return to VFR is expected at both terminals
by 15-16z and through the remainder of the TAF period.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...024

NWS GLD Office Area Forecast Discussion