Limestone, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

402
FXUS61 KBUF 282017
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
417 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building east and then south across the Great Lakes
will lead to an extended period of dry weather through the entire
week. Warm daytime temperatures through Tuesday will cool to more
seasonable levels by Wednesday, then trend back above normal later
in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A stout ridge of high pressure will build east across the Great
Lakes, with the high centering over the eastern Great Lakes Monday.
This will maintain fair dry weather areawide, with typical
nocturnal valley fog tonight. High temperatures Monday will be
well above normal with 70s to low/mid 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure over northern Ontario will build southward
into the Northeast Monday night through Thursday night. A cold
front will drop south across the region Tuesday. Cold air
advection and a northeast flow will result in cooler day and
night time temperatures for the middle of the week. The surface
high is expected to move over New England Wednesday night
through Thursday. This will support a favorable set-up for
radiational cooling across the forecast area Wednesday night.
Overnight lows are expected to fall to the 30s for inland
locations, such as the Western Southern Tier and Eastern Lake
Ontario regions, and areas of frost are possible. Patchy frost
can`t be ruled out again Thursday night, however coverage is
expected to be much less than Wednesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper level ridge will stretch from the southwest U.S. to the
Northeast late in the week through the weekend. A return flow
around an exiting high will promote warmer temperatures, however
there is medium to high confidence that dry weather will
continue through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly VFR through tonight as strong high pressure builds into the
region from the west. A weak, moisture starved cold front will most
notably cause a northerly wind shift.
A round of valley fog expected tonight, though with the sfc high
moving directly overhead winds will be light enough for some
radiation fog in other locations. Low confidence in areal extent
though with greatest chances will be east and southeast of Lake
Ontario (KFZY), and also at KJHW.
Monday, VFR conditions with high clouds increasing during the
afternoon from south to north. Winds will be light, mainly out of
the south and shifting through the day to the north.
Outlook...
Monday night through Friday...Mainly VFR. Valley fog and local IFR
possible each late night through the morning hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Quiet marine conditions with variable flow and winds mainly 10 knots
or less are expected on lower Great Lakes as high pressure maintains
its influence through Monday. Northeast winds will slowly begin to
increase throughout the day Tuesday as Canadian high pressure builds
south into the region and a tropical system churns off the East
Coast creating some chop, especially on Lake Ontario.
A stronger push of cooler air into the region will cause northeast
winds to sharply increase Tuesday night into Wednesday night with
speeds of 15 to 25 knots, with a period of SCA conditions expected,
especially on Lake Ontario.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PP
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...PP/TMA
MARINE...JJR/PP/TMA

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion