Lodi Township, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

762
FXUS63 KDTX 191939
AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
339 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly dry Saturday, with a chance for showers overnight.
- Mild again Sunday with a higher likelihood for showers and storms,
but severe weather is not expected.
- Wetter conditions at times Monday and Tuesday, followed by a cool-
down midweek.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Diurnal stratocumulus dissipate this evening offering a period of
mostly clear skies early tonight, but nocturnal cooling may be
inhibited by passing mid-high clouds associated with elevated
warm/moist advection. Boundary-layer condensation pressure deficits
are much larger tonight compared to the prior night, therefore fog
potential should be lower and more sparse in coverage heading into
Saturday morning.
Conditions reminiscent of late summer arrive Saturday as a cut-off
low over the Upper Midwest phases with a shortwave trough dropping
out of the Canadian Prairies. This helps displace the ridge axis
currently over the Great Lakes, causing it to shear downstream into
the longwave trough over northeastern Canada. 850 mb temperatures
hover in the low to perhaps mid teens (Celsius) capping highs AOB
80F for most areas. A west-east thermal gradient develops once again
as light easterly flow persists, keeping readings a bit cooler for
areas to closer to the central Great Lakes. A stalled frontal
boundary over northern IN/OH releases northeastward across western
Lower Michigan as a warm front Saturday while CVA streams in
overhead during the afternoon. CAMs and global models suggest
sufficiently slow upstream dynamics processes should keep the
daytime period mainly dry, with one exception along the immediate
western CWA border. A few showers could arrive before the 00Z hour
approaches. Given increasing confluence within the LLJ corridor,
afternoon gusts should trend toward 20 mph, from the ESE.
First round of potential rainfall arrives Saturday night with the
lead flank of height falls and perturbed mid-level flow. Coverage
will be sparse and rain rates should be held in-check. Portions of
Southeast Michigan, particularly closer to Metro Detroit, are
largely expected to stay dry. A more significant push of ThetaE
advection arrives Sunday, marked by an uptick in surface dewpoints
into the low-mid 60s. This environment does appear more favorable
for pockets of higher rainfall rates given less convective
inhibition and PWATs climbing to around 1.50 inches. The vicinity
upper low then gradually works across the northern Great Lakes
Monday and Tuesday which maintains a tendency for ascent across
southern Lower. Additional opportunities for showers ensue, followed
by cooling trend midweek.
&&
.MARINE...
The pressure gradient tightens over the central Great Lakes this
afternoon into Saturday as high pressure tracks southeast across
Ontario and a low pressure system tracks north across Minnesota.
This produces an uptick in northeast wind this afternoon with
southern Lake Huron and Saginaw Bay seeing wind speeds of 15 to 20
kt. Gusts to 25 kt will be possible over Saginaw Bay at times this
evening due to funneling effects. A Small Craft Advisory has been
issued for Outer Saginaw Bay and the Lake Huron nearshore waters
where wave heights will build to 4+ feet tonight. Wind direction
then veers east and east-southeast overnight as the high pressure
reaches the eastern Great Lakes; this focuses the higher magnitude
of wind (sustained 15 to 20 kt, gust to 25 kt) across the northern
portion of Lake Huron through Saturday. Winds of around 15 kt can be
expected across the rest of the region. Probability for showers and
thunderstorms will increase Saturday night and particularly Sunday
as the aforementioned low pressure system sends its warm front
across the region. Wind will prevail out of the southeast at 10 to
15 kt through Sunday before shifting to southwest Monday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1253 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
AVIATION...
SE Michigan is influenced by both northern Ontario high pressure and
a front stalled just south of the Ohio border this afternoon through
tonight. Ongoing NE boundary layer flow is rich enough in moisture,
especially with a boost from Lake Huron, for borderline MVFR/VFR
stratocu as heating ramped up since sunrise. Coverage is projected
to hold mainly north of PTK while trending more into VFR this
afternoon. Otherwise, the stalled front occasionally produces mid
level VFR clouds across the area with a component of Lake Erie MVFR
stratocu also possible in a veering wind trend later tonight and
Saturday morning.
For DTW/D21 Convection... No thunderstorms expected tonight and
Saturday.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* None.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Saturday
     for LHZ421-441>443.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KGK
MARINE.......TF
AVIATION.....BT
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NWS DTX Office Area Forecast Discussion