Lone Grove, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

233
FXUS64 KOUN 180352
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1052 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1049 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
- Periods of rain and thunderstorms are expected today in
   northern and western Oklahoma, with chances moving southward
   tomorrow and Friday.
- Temperatures will cool down briefly late this week and again
   early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Key Point: Storms are likely along and north of a boundary across
northwest Oklahoma this afternoon.
Meteorological Discussion: With rain moving through the area,
surface analysis is rather messy showing multiple weak boundaries
across northern Oklahoma / Kansas / the panhandles. The upper low
will be a driving mechanism for scattered showers and storms this
afternoon and evening, focusing the highest PoPs in northwest
Oklahoma. Most CAMs don`t start this back up until after 3pm.
HREF suggest around 1500 joules of CAPE and no more than about 30
knots of effective bulk shear, allowing for the possibility of a few
brief strong to severe storms (with wind as the primary threat).
Instability will wane quickly in the evening, but additional showers
will be possible overnight into tomorrow morning.
Day
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Key Points: Scattered storm chances continue on Thursday with a
cooldown into Friday.
Meteorological Discussion: Scattered showers and storms will
continue across northern Oklahoma through Thursday as the upper low
shifts eastward. This will keep temperatures cooler (upper 70s /
lower 80s) across this area.
Additional outflow will provide some support for showers into
southern Oklahoma Thursday night into early Friday. Temperatures
will be a bit more uniform across the area on Friday (mid 80s to
lower 90s) behind these boundaries.
Day
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Key Points: Daily rain chances continue into early next week, when
another cooldown is likely to occur.
Meteorological Discussion: Although the initial trough across the
Plains is expected to lift out of the reach of our area, full
ridging is not likely to return. This is because the subtropical
ridge will redevelop further west across the northern Mexican
highlands, leaving us in a northwest flow zone on its northeast
periphery. Because of that, at least low (20-40) percent chances of
rain are expected on both days this weekend, especially along and
southeast of I-44. Temperatures are likely to warm up some and
settle back in above normal.
A pattern flip is likely beginning on Monday as one of the first
true fall troughs of the year translates eastward across the
northern Plains. Though most of the troughing will miss us to the
north, global guidance shows a cutoff low developing at its base.
That will help cool off our temperatures on Monday and Tuesday and
bring in more rain chances. We might finally begin to dry out on
Wednesday as the cutoff low starts to wander east.
Meister
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage
across northwest Oklahoma after midnight. This activity will
gradually shift eastward overnight with the potential for
redevelopment Wednesday afternoon. PROB30s were included at most
terminals to account for this (the exception being KSPS). Gusty
winds and brief reductions in visibility are possible with the
most intense storms.
A northerly wind shift will enter northwest Oklahoma tonight and
gradually move to the southeast. Ahead of this, winds will remain
light and somewhat variable (though mostly from the
south/southeast).
Mahale
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  86  64  86 /  10  30  50  20
Hobart OK         66  89  62  90 /  20  30  40  10
Wichita Falls TX  69  91  66  91 /   0  20  30  20
Gage OK           60  76  57  84 /  60  50  20  10
Ponca City OK     66  84  62  86 /  30  40  50  10
Durant OK         69  93  68  89 /   0  20  50  40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...10

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion