Loretto, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

417
FXUS63 KMPX 191951
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
251 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and weak storms on and off throughout the
  rest of today.
- Further daily shower chances through midweek, followed by
  seasonal and dry weather.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Visible satellite showing a well developed low which shrouds much of
the northern plains in cloud cover this afternoon. Beneath all of
this cloud cover are bands of moderate rain showers and a few
pockets of thunder. Periods of rain and thunder can be expected over
the next several hours across much of central and southern MN and
western WI. Overall, the convective environment does look to be
shallow given MLCAPE values generally less than 500 J/kg meaning
widespread thunder is not expected. A few brief periods of heavy
rainfall may occur given PWATs ranging near 1.3 inches.
Additionally, latest RAP guidance continues to show enough low-level
directional shear coupled with 1kft LCLs, which could potentially
develop a few cold-air funnels near the surface low in west central
Minnesota. As this low pressure continues to meander north-
northeastward, a dry slot should temporarily suppress some cloud
cover and PoPs gradually from southeast to northwest overnight.
As we enter this weekend, the troughing pattern zonally elongates.
Residual lobes of vorticity look to dance around the broader
troughing pattern through at least Saturday afternoon which will
once again produce another round of diurnal precip. As of now, the
best concentration of precip coverage looks to be aimed across north-
central MN over to western WI. Storm total QPF through Saturday
night looks to range between a half inch to three quarters of an
inch. Areas south and west of the MN River Valley should see closer
to a quarter of an inch or less with a few localized higher amounts
sprinkled in. Sunday through Tuesday will maintain diurnal chances
of precip although not as expansive in coverage as we slowly
transition to northerly flow.
No significant swings in temperatures are expected over the next
several days as the airmass is not changing much day to day. Highs
generally expected to range within the upper 60s to low 70s and lows
in the 50s are expected across the area. Winds are also expected to
be light through the period generally 10kts or less. Come the middle
of next week, high pressure looks to take hold across the northern
CONUS which should keep precip chances well to our south.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Scattered showers and storms will continue to develop across the
region this afternoon (later with eastward extent), as the large
upper-level low near the SD/MN border persists. Have changed
PROB30s this afternoon into TEMPOs for increased confidence in
-TSRA. Cigs should improve slightly to MVFR/VFR with daytime
 heating into this evening before falling again tonight. Rain
 should also end from west to east this evening/tonight. Across
 southern MN (RWF, MKT, MSP) MVFR conditions seem most likely
 with some potential for denser fog near MKT. Farther north and
 east, IFR/LIFR is more likely from falling cigs and fog from
 moisture pooling into the low. Conditions should slightly
 improve by late Saturday morning. Southeasterly winds will slow
 and turn more southerly overnight into Saturday morning.
KMSP...Changed PROB30 to TEMPO for -TSRA this afternoon with
visibilities falling to 3sm within heavier storms. VFR
conditions expected by this evening but cigs should dip to MVFR
for a several hour period Saturday morning. Added a PROB30 for
-TSRA Saturday afternoon for an increasing chance of scattered
 thunderstorms.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...Chc MVFR/-TSRA, mainly P.M. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
MON...Mainly VFR. Slight chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind variable 5 kts.
TUE...Mainly VFR. Slight chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...CTG

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion