Lucas, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

247
FXUS63 KICT 021903
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
203 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures continue through the weekend with
  highs in the mid and upper 80s likely.
- Gusty south winds likely Saturday, especially across central
  Kansas, where gusts over 40 mph will be possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Water vapor imagery currently shows a weak upper impulse
sliding across the Mid Mississippi Valley with upper ridging
through the Southern High Plains. Meanwhile, a sharp upper
trough is just off of the Pacific Northwest Coast.
Morning showers finally dissipated over the Flint Hills a few
hours ago and were the result of some mid level warm advection
along a sharp 700mb baroclinic zone.
For tonight into Fri, West Coast trough will consolidate as it
sinks southeast and by Fri afternoon will be tracking across
Central CA, with upper ridging remaining from Northern Mex
through the Southern Plains. This setup will keep precip out of
the forecast and will also allow above normal temps in the upper
80s to continue for Fri.
Western CONUS impulse will continue tracking east and by late
Sat afternoon will be moving across the Central Rockies and
into the Central Plains by Sat night. As this shortwave lift
into the Upper Mississippi Valley, a weak cold front will try
and push through the area Sun night into Mon and will bring
increased rain chances. Ahead of the front we are still looking
for highs to be around 10 degrees above normal for Sat and Sun
as they top out in the mid and upper 80s. Models remain
consistent forecasting strong south winds on Saturday with
sustained speeds around 30 mph likely across central KS with
gusts in the 40-50 mph range. Wind speeds will drop off across
southern and southeast KS where mixing will not be as deep.
There is good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF in some upper
energy getting cut-off over the Great Basin on Mon as the mean
upper trough swings across southern Saskatchewan and into
Southwest Ontario by Tue morning. This will allow a more
substantial cold front to push south across the area for Tue
into Wed, bringing cooler temps and increased rain chances.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through
the next 24 hours.
Morning showers are finally dissipating over the Flint Hills
and were the result of some warm advection across a mid level
baroclinic zone. VFR conditions are anticipated area wide
through the next 24 hours with gusty southeast winds expected
this afternoon and again Fri afternoon for locations along and
especially west of I-135.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion