Magnolia, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

742
FXUS62 KMHX 270703
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
303 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Frontal boundary will stall over the Coastal Plain this morning
and move little through early next week bringing a prolonged
period of unsettled weather. As we get into next week we will be
monitoring the progress of Humberto and Potential Tropical
Cyclone Nine. Strong high pressure looks to build in from the
north by about mid week next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 230 AM Sat...
Key Messages
- Increased risk of training thunderstorms with heavy rain
   today bringing a threat for flash flooding
Cold front which remains off to our west this morning continues
to gradually drag itself east and should stall over ENC later
this morning. Ongoing showers and isolated thunderstorms in
association with a passing shortwave trough continue to push
off to the north and east this morning with the potential for a
bit of a lull in rain and thunderstorm activity at least across
portions of ENC towards daybreak. With ample cloud cover, lows
will be generally in the low-70s across much of the area.
Guidance also indicates potential for patchy fog/low stratus
into daybreak.
As we get into today, yet another somewhat complex forecast is
in store. The biggest challenge being rain and thunderstorm
timing for ENC as much of this will be dependent on when the
strongest forcing occurs. But, the general pattern is as
follows. Positively tilted upper level trough stretching from
the interior NE to the Southeast will slow and take on a more
neutral tilt today as it begins the process of cutting off from
the upper level flow. At the surface, previously mentioned front
will stall near the coast and will be the main focus for shower
and thunderstorm development today. CAMs have come into two
main camps. One which shows continued scattered to widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity throughout the day today and
the second showing a brief lull in activity around day break
before more widespread activity overspreads ENC this afternoon.
Have elected to go with some lower PoP`s this morning (closer
to SChc to Chc) with likely PoP`s returning in the afternoon as
general expectation is current shortwave trough impacting the
region will depart and a second shortwave will then track into
ENC by this afternoon promoting forcing for precip. While the
severe weather threat is expected to remain very low, forecast
vertical profiles show deep, largely saturated profiles with
PWATs of around 2". Narrow CAPE profiles will also favor
efficient rainfall processes, so showers and thunderstorms will
be capable of heavy rainfall. Deep layer flow will lead to
marginally quicker storm motions, so flash flood risk will be
greater where any training storms set up. Latest guidance
suggests widespread 0.5-1.5" of rain may fall across the area
with the potential for 2-3"+ of rain possible where
thunderstorms train over each other. Combined with the previous
days rainfall, isolated pockets of flash flooding will be a
concern. Though potential will remain isolated enough to
preclude a flash flood watch. WPC currently has ENC in a slight
(2/5) risk for flash flooding which will be the main hazard
today especially in the afternoon/evening. Given cloud cover and
stalled front offshore, temps will be cooler, with highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Saturday...
- Continued risk of showers and thunderstorms overnight
As we get into tonight upper level trough is expected to cutoff
from the flow and slowly retrograde west towards the Tennessee
River Valley. As this occurs, a spoke of mid level shortwave
energy will likely be pushing across the Southeast this evening
continuing to promote scattered to widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity. Once again with ample moisture, PWATs
over 2", and long skinny CAPE profiles in place across the area
the main concern with this activity will be heavy to excessive
rainfall. Either way, much like during the day the biggest
challenge will be timing for shower and thunderstorm activity as
there will likely be breaks in the activity with some areas
seeing little in the way of rainfall while others see another
0.5-1" of rainfall overnight. Temps tonight get into the upper
60s to low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 AM Sat...
Key Messages:
- Monitoring the evolution of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine
   and Humberto over the next several days for any indirect or
   direct impacts to ENC next week
The cold front will remained stalled across the area Sunday as
both tropical cyclones over the Atlantic gradually strengthen
and move NNW. Increased forcing from the front and shortwave
will combine with increasing tropical moisture (PWATs around
2"), giving way to scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Expect best precip chances along the coast in
the morning, then likely transitioning inland during the
afternoon. Main concern will be the potential for moderate to
heavy rain, which could lead to a localized flood threat.
Two tropical cyclones will impact the region next week.
Hurricane Humberto is expected to remain well offshore, though
long period swell energy from this system will begin to impact
the waters Monday, peaking Tuesday and Wednesday. Then PTC Nine
is forecast to strengthen into a TS and then a Hurricane as it
lifts N-NNW approaching the SE coast early next week. There is
still quite a bit of uncertainty in the track of this system
(because it hasn`t formed yet)...with the potential for three
different scenarios: the cyclone could make landfall along the
SE coast, it could move towards the SE coast then push eastward
back offshore, or it could stall near or along the SE coast for
several days as steering currents collapse. Some uncertainty
expected to diminish once a circulation actually develops over
the next 24 hr and models will be able better resolve the system
and utilize the aircraft recon data as well as supplemental
sounding data occuring across SECONUS. The key message right
now is both systems are expected to bring some level of impacts
to the area, though specifics remain uncertain at this time.
Tropical moisture will be spreading over the area, and swell
will be increasing. Above normal precip chances expected, with
the potential for periods of moderate to heavy rain. Depending
on rainfall this weekend and the eventual track of PTC 9, could
set up potential for a larger scale flood threat across the
area. Coastal impacts also expected (see section below for more
details). Will continue to monitor for specifics over the next
few days.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...
Key Messages
- Increased risk of TSRA over the next 24 hrs
 - IFR/MVFR CIGs possible tonight into the morning
Ongoing rain and isolated thunderstorm activity have brought
periods of MVFR to IFR ceilings/vis to the region tonight.
Continue to expect periods of showers and storms with the
potential for a lull in activity this morning before additional
more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity occurs this
afternoon and evening. For now to account for this, kept SHRA in
the forecast for all TAF sites with some TEMPO TSRA primarily
at EWN in until about 8/9Z. Afterwards kept the lull in precip
in with a PROB30 TSRA group starting at 18Z for all TAF sites
for an additional thunder threat. Will likely need to adjust
this and either increase probs to a TEMPO or persistent wx
group at all TAF sites as we get closer to this afternoon.
Precip chances likely decrease some late tonight. Otherwise a
mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings/vis are expected across ENC after
the rain moves through. Did keep a SCT deck of IFR ceilings
mainly at ISO/PGV TAF sites to account for possibility of low
stratus at these sites after rain moves through. Timing is
generally from 08-15Z today with VFR ceilings and vis expected
outside of any shower or tstm activity this afternoon and into
this evening before yet another threat for MVFR to IFR
ceilings/vis is expected late tonight. Winds generally remain
light through the period becoming variable at times.
LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 230 AM Sat...
Key Messages
- Unsettled pattern will bring unfavorable flying conditions to
   ENC into next week.
A cold front is forecast to stall across the region this
weekend. This front will then move little through early next
week. As a result, will likely see an extended period with a
higher likelihood of sub-VFR conditions across ENC as scattered
to widespread showers and thunderstorms develop across the
area. Ceilings and vis will likely be reduced within any rain
and thunderstorm activity while outside of this activity periods
of VFR may be found between precip chances.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...
Key Messages
- Risk of thunderstorm impacts Sat/Sat night
South to southwest winds at 5-15kts are currently noted across
our waters with a few isolated gusts of 15-20 kts. As a slow
moving cold front currently to our west nears the coast and
stalls today, expect the pressure gradient to relax some
allowing winds to become light and southeasterly, lowering down
to 5-10 kts today. Seas of 2-4 ft at 6-8s are expected today.
Increased risk for scattered to potentially widespread showers
and thunderstorms across area waters this morning into the
overnight hours as the cold front moves into the area. Locally
enhanced winds and seas are possible within the strongest storms
that impact our waters.
LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 230 AM Sat...
Key Message
- Dangerous marine conditions expected next week, with two
   tropical cyclones impacting the waters
Cold front is expected to stall near the coast this weekend.
This is forecast to bring a prolonged period of scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms to the waters. A few storms
could be strong in nature resulting in locally enhanced winds
and seas.
Two tropical cyclones will impact the waters next week. Hurricane
Humberto is expected to remain well offshore, though long period
swell energy from this system will begin to impact the waters
Monday, peaking Tuesday and Wednesday. Then PTC Nine is
forecast to strengthen into a TS and then a Hurricane as it
lifts N-NNW approaching the SE coast early next week. There is
still quite a bit of uncertainty in the track of this system
(because it hasn`t formed yet)...with the potential for three
different scenarios: the cyclone could make landfall along the
SE coast, it could move towards the SE coast then push eastward
back offshore, or it could stall near or along the SE coast for
several days as steering currents collapse. Sunday will be the
last decent day across the waters with light N-E winds with seas
2-4 ft. Strong high pressure to the north and PTC 9 to the
south will keep a strong pressure gradient over the waters, with
NE-E winds increasing to 15-25 kt through the week along with
building seas (10-15 ft). Please continue to monitor the
forecast over the next several days.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 230 AM Sat...Long period swell from distant Humberto is
forecast to reach ENC beaches as early as Monday, then peak
Tuesday and Wednesday. Swell impacts may last much of the
upcoming week (in combo with PTC Nine), which include dangerous
rip currents, large breaking waves, and the potential for ocean
overwash, coastal flooding and wave runup impacts. In the wake
of the tropical systems, a period of strong NEerly/onshore winds
associated with a cold front and building high pressure in its
wake may heighten impacts along the coast, while also increasing
the risk for water level rises on the inside, including areas
adjacent to the Pamlico Sound and along the Neuse mid to late
week. Stay tuned through the week for updates on the areas of
greatest impact, and the magnitude of those impacts.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...CQD/CEB
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...CQD/RCF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion