Mancelona, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

283
FXUS63 KAPX 170953
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
553 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry for most today; slight shower / thunder chance across
  western Mackinac and Chippewa counties this afternoon.
- Turning cooler with better rain chances by the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Pattern Synopsis:
Rex blocking regime in the process of being suppressed as waves over
the Plains crest the ridge axis overhead. Surface high pressure to
hold steady across the area through the day today, continuing to
supply the region with plentiful dry air aloft. As a result, a cold
front advancing through the area along a disheveled shortwave trough
will be quite moisture starved, limiting rain potential, all the
while successfully advecting in a cooler airmass to close out the
week.
Forecast Details:
Patchy fog continues at the time of this forecast issuance, albeit
rather less widespread than last night. Anticipating that most fog
scours out a little quicker today than yesterday, with most spots
likely free of fog after 9am (save for perhaps the Lake Huron coast.
Besides the morning fog, we will largely be lacking in the sensible
weather department for today... sunny, dry, and weak synoptic flow
will once again promote lake breeze processes in the afternoon,
which should stunt warmth along the coasts and probably cool things
down inland with time (save for the very interior, which may not see
lake breeze arrival until the evening. Warmer today with highs
reaching well into the 80s for most. Will have to watch some low
level convergence along these lake breezes. Lack of moisture through
the column (and at the surface) will stunt any convective
attempts across northern lower with just some fair weather
cumulus; however, better moisture pooling in the eastern Yoop
could give them a better shot at popping a shower (albeit, still
quite low). Guidance is quite unimpressed by this idea, so for
the time being, will only roll with slight chance PoPs west of
I-75 in the eastern Yoop.
Otherwise... will still have to note the festering fire conditions
due to vegetation frying out amid a lack of recent rainfall.
Fortunately, weak flow will once again likely mitigate fire growth
potential, but risk still remains non-zero. Tonight, the
aforementioned frontal boundary is set to make its way through the
northern half of the CWA... and thus, will probably bring an
increase in clouds as a narrow plume of better moisture intrudes.
Would not be surprising to see this accompanied by drizzly
/ stratus dominant conditions. Greatest likelihood of this favors
north of the bridge, leaking south into far northern lower later
tonight. With the increase in clouds... will likely see most spots
struggle to efficiently radiate. Lows tonight 55 to 63, warmest
across northwest lower and eastern upper. Locally lower 50s across
the M-55 corridor where they will be just ahead of the incoming
clouds before they intrude late.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Pattern Summary:
Frontal passage anticipated late tonight will continue into Thursday
with minimal fanfare. Resulting flow will be northerly, and a
stubborn area of cloud cover will likely limit temperatures warming
the farther north one goes. Anticipating this to be a relatively
sharp gradient... probably setting up somewhere around the M-32
and M-72 corridors, going north to the Bridge. Highs struggle
to reach 70 in this cloudier regime with occasional drizzle
potential. Different story to the south... less cloudy
conditions will allow for excellent warming despite a north
wind. Highs may easily exceed 80 across the far southern CWA.
The front clears by Friday and instills a much sharper NNE flow
across the region, which will bring about much chillier weather
to the area... most spots likely struggle to breach 65 to 70,
with the exception of the far SW CWA (Manistee / Wexford) which
could downslope their way past 75. Surface high pressure should
bring decreasing cloud cover to the region through the day, and
the dry trend likely holds through Saturday.
Next more appreciable rain chances likely hold until the end of the
weekend when another disturbance passes through the region. Latest
guidance showcases that this system will have a little more
"pizazz", if you will, with it and looks developed enough to
draw in a little more humidity to accompany slightly warmer
temps (75 to lower 80s). This system will be shearing out and
disheveled too, but to a much lesser extent than recent systems.
As such, potential for showers and perhaps some rumbles of
thunder may materialize through the day Sunday as the system
passes. Initial glance at dynamics doesn`t exactly scream severe
weather or widespread rainfall (likely more localized), but at
this point, any rain is welcome to combat the fall dry season.
Cooler temperatures return into next week, and with some waves
still floating around the Great Lakes, unsettled weather may
continue as well.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 553 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Early morning fog (and there isn`t as much as yesterday) will
erode quickly this morning, with mostly sunny skies after.
Clouds increase tonight at the northern TAF sites (CIU/PLN), and
it`s not impossible for those sites to see a stray shower. In
the south (especially MBL) some fog could return late tonight.
Light winds.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...JZ

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion