Manteo, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

921
FXUS62 KMHX 191859
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
259 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area on Saturday and stall
offshore. A coastal trough or coastal low may then develop along
the stalled front early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Fri...Warm and modestly muggy start to the weekend
underway across eastern NC this afternoon with very weak mid-
level flow aloft ahead of an approaching closed low currently
over the Northern Plains. At the surface, Canadian high pressure
is weakly ridging in from the north while eyes remain on a
sharpening trough currently off the east coast of Florida, which
may be a weather maker later in the weekend.
Rest of today will be quiet and of typical warm season fare with
diurnal cu steadily increasing in coverage and sea breeze
advancing inland. Some hi-res guidance shows spotty shower
activity across the coastal plain, but model soundings show a
considerable amount of dry air that would be difficult to
overcome, so left the forecast dry.
Overnight looks to be another strong candidate for fog,
potentially equally as dense as this morning given uptick in
low-level moisture behind this afternoon`s seabreeze. Ambient
environment will be highly favorable with clear skies and light
to calm winds. Foggy conditions could begin to set in just a
couple hours after sunset, but densest fog is most likely pre-
dawn Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 245 PM Fri...Coastal trough will continue to sharpen off
the southeast coast tomorrow as Plains upper low continues to
shift eastward. Weaker vort max will migrate across the
Carolinas tomorrow afternoon ahead of this feature. After
depicting a distinct closed low migrating along the coastal
trough yesterday, most high-res guidance has backed off this
solution but continue to show healthy northeasterly flow across
the region as trough sharpens and Canadian high pressure wedges
into the mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Trended slightly higher
with forecast winds, but the main impact of this trend is for
precip risk to trend down tomorrow, threatening mainly the Outer
Banks as deeper moisture (and therefore shower/thunderstorm
chances) remains over open water. Northeast flow will help nudge
temps down a couple degrees from today, but highs still touch
the low to mid 80s inland and near 80 along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 AM Friday...
Key Messages
- Warmer and potentially unsettled weather over the upcoming
   week
Upper level ridging briefly shifts overhead on Monday, then
attention turns to a positively-tilted upper trough that is forecast
to drop south out of Canada next week. Medium range guidance
continue to struggle with the evolution of this trough, specifically
regarding if and where a cutoff low develops east of the Rockies.
Significant run-to-run model changes only add to the increased
uncertainty regarding the upper level pattern next week.
All that said, the general theme appears to be warm with increasing
moisture and instability through the week. This should support a
better chance of showers and thunderstorms compared to what we have
seen over the past few weeks. Given the uncertainties with the
cutoff low, it will be harder to pin down which day(s) will carry a
higher risk of showers. For now, then, we`ll continue to advertise a
modest risk of showers and thunderstorms (20-40% chance) most days
from Wednesday on.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18z Sat/...
As of 250 PM Fri...After widespread VLIFR this morning, VFR
prevails in a more typical warm-season regime with sct diurnal
cu and light and variable winds. Main concern for aviation
interests is once again overnight into Sat morning with a
renewed risk of fog given light winds and clear skies, enhanced
further by a modest uptick in low-level moisture behind the
advancing seabreeze. Signal for fog is just as strong as last
night and locally vis could reach down below a half mile at
times, especially right before dawn. Vis restrictions could
begin as early as 02z.
Fog lifts tomorrow morning, once again giving way to mostly to
partly sunny skies and VFR conditions. Pressure gradient
tightens between sharpening coastal trough offshore and high
pressure wedging in from the north, and forecast calls for an
increase in northeasterly winds, potentially gusting up to 15-20
kt at times primarily for OBX.
LONG TERM /Saturday night through Tuesday/...
As of 200 AM Friday...We`ll be watching for the potential
development of a weak coastal low Saturday night into Sunday, as
this would lead to an increased risk of sub VFR conditions,
especially along the coast. In this scenario, a few TSRA would
also be possible. Confidence in the development of a coastal low
is low, though, so stay tuned through the weekend. Conditions
should improve moving into early next week as high pressure
moves in with drier conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 300 PM Fri...Currently good boating conditions in place
across area waters with seas at a near-univeral 2 feet with
periods of 8-10 seconds and light, generally easterly winds at
around 5-10 kt. Surface trough off the coast of Florida is
expected to slowly sharpen through tomorrow while high pressure
wedges inland, and the tightening pressure gradient will result
in a stiffer northeast wind of up to 15-20 kt by this time
tomorrow. Hi-res models have backed off on showing an explicit
coastal low but still show a good signal for SCA starting by Sat
evening, and trended the official forecast up a few knots from
the previous. Seas will remain below SCA criteria but gradually
build tomorrow, hitting 4-5 feet by sunset Sat.
No headlines were issued this afternoon, but will
likely need to be assessed for the overnight package.
LONG TERM /Saturday night through Tuesday/...
As of 200 AM Friday...
Key Messages
- Elevated seas from distant Gabrielle possible mid-week
By late Monday or Tuesday, winds are expected to lay down to
5-10kt. Seas may remain elevated longer, though, due to distant
swell from Gabrielle out in the central Atlantic.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RM/MS
MARINE...RM/MS

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion