Manzano Base, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

209
FXUS65 KABQ 121202 AAA
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
602 AM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 541 AM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
- There will be a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over
  western areas this afternoon and evening, then along and east
  of the central mountain chain Saturday afternoon and evening.
- Stronger storms will be capable of producing torrential
  downpours with rain at rates over 1 to 2 inches per hour today
  through Saturday night. The greatest risk of flash flooding will
  be along and west of the central mountain chain today and
  tonight, then along and east of the central mountain chain
  Saturday afternoon and night.
- After drier weather Sunday, another round of monsoon showers and
  thunderstorms are expected mainly along and east of the
  continental divide Monday, and more-so Tuesday and Wednesday.
  Locally heavy rainfall will again be possible mainly on Tuesday
  afternoon and evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 118 AM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
As an upper level low pressure system gradually exits
northeastward from the Great Basin, a shortwave trough will sweep
northeastward across NM this afternoon and tonight producing
multi-cell clusters and lines of thunderstorms. Many locations will
receive more than one storm today and/or tonight as a broad wave
of convective activity shifts gradually eastward across the
forecast area, favoring western areas this morning, then spreading
to central areas as well this afternoon. Tonight, the focus will
be over central and eastern areas. With PWATs mostly around
125-175% of average for this time of year, some storms will be
capable of producing locally heavy rain at rates over 1-2 inches
per hour. Bulk shear (0-6 KM) around 30-55 KT and ample
instability will enable some storms to turn severe with a risk of
large hail and a good chance for wind gusts to 60 mph. A few
squall lines are likely this afternoon and evening, especially
from the continental divide to the central mountain chain, and
these will be capable of producing wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph
potentially impacting locations from Taos to Socorro, including
the New Mexico State Fair Grounds in Albuquerque. At this time,
high resolution models depict the greatest risk for a squall line
with strong winds impacting Santa Fe and Albuquerque from 2-5 PM,
with showers and storms continuing off and on through the evening,
then decreasing activity in the urban corridor after midnight.
Subsequent storms will probably produce less strong winds than the
initial squall line, but periods of moderate-to-heavy rain and
cloud-to-ground lightning should be expected with the potential
for small hail. By late tonight, rain totals from 0.25-0.65"
should be common along and west of the central mountain chain,
with locally higher amounts over 2 inches in a few spots mainly
along and north of I-40. Will continue the ongoing Flash Flood
Watch for these locations, except for the Chuska Mountains and
Gallup where less rain is expected. Will also issue a Flash Flood
Watch for Ruidoso, where high res models depict isolated storms
developing as early as 2 or 3 PM this afternoon, then nearly
continuous precipitation from 10 PM through the late night hours.
In the wake of the upper low exiting northeastward from the Great
Basin, an upper level trough will sweep eastward through NM with
a Pacific cold front Saturday and Saturday night. This will
produce additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms potentially
as far west as the AZ border on Saturday, but more likely along
and east of the continental divide. The risk for locally heavy
rainfall will mainly be along and east of the central mountain
chain Saturday and Saturday night, where rich atmospheric moisture
will continue to produce rain rates over 1-2 inches per hour in
stronger cells. Most rain amounts Saturday and Saturday night will
vary from 0.50-1.00" along and east of the central mountain
chain, and mostly under a half inch farther west, except for
spottier accumulations west of the continental divide. Locally
higher amounts over 3 inches are likely on parts of the eastern
plains. Will let the day shift consider a Flash Flood Watch for
Saturday, but it currently looks likely that scattered occurrences
of flash flooding will impact locations along and east of the
central mountain chain. The risk of heavy rainfall and flash
flooding will probably linger through the late night hours along
NM`s eastern border. In addition, bulk shear around 30-50 KT will
continue the risk of severe storms producing damaging winds and
large hail on Saturday and Saturday night, especially along and
east of the central mountain chain where the greatest instability
will exist.
High temperatures will mostly trend downward today and Saturday
with readings bottoming out Saturday afternoon a few to around 10
degrees below 1991-2020 averages.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 118 AM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
In the wake of the Pacific cold front that crosses Saturday and
Saturday night, high valleys in the northern mountains, like the
Moreno Valley including Eagle Nest and Angel Fire, can expect
their first freeze of the season Saturday night, and a hard freeze
Sunday night. Otherwise, dry air will overspread most of the
forecast area on Sunday. Isolated showers and storms may return
from the south central mountains eastward (as far north as Clovis)
Sunday afternoon, where a modest return flow of low level moisture
will develop out of the south and southeast.
Monday, another stream of monsoon moisture will begin to set up
with isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
returning to the central mountain chain, adjacent east
slopes, east central plains, and areas along and south of Highway
60. A high pressure system centered over Texas and an upper level
low pressure system passing eastward over the northern and
central Rockies will steer the richest moisture over the forecast
area on Tuesday with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms mostly from the continental divide of northwest NM
to the east slopes of the central mountain chain, then farther
east across the northeast and east central plains Tuesday night.
PWATs in this area should generally peak around 0.80-1.20", which
will be plenty to produce locally heavy rainfall and isolated
occurrences of flash flooding; especially with a disturbance
embedded in the flow coming northeastward out of Mexico.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to
return along and east of the continental divide Wednesday
afternoon and evening as a southeasterly return flow of low level
moisture persists and a secondary disturbance clips northeast NM
in northwest flow aloft. This set up is notorious for producing
severe thunderstorms along and east of the central mountain chain,
where storms are forecast to continue through the night. Thursday
will feature recycling moisture and mainly isolated storms along
and east of the continental divide as a ridge of high pressure
builds northward over the state.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 AM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
High resolution models depict scattered to numerous rain showers
and thunderstorms continuing to stream quickly northeastward
across western parts of the forecast area today. This afternoon
and evening, multi-cell clusters and lines of storms will move
fairly swiftly eastward from the continental divide, across the
central valley, and through the central mountain chain. Some
locations will have multiple thunderstorms pass overhead. Stronger
storms will produce heavy rainfall with wet microbursts, and these
microbursts will probably congeal into broad and impactful squall
line gust fronts reaching many, if not all, of the airports
between the continental divide and the central mountain chain with
wind gusts mostly from 35-45 KT, and locally up to 50 KT. A few
storms will also be capable of producing large hail from the
central mountain chain westward today, especially during the
afternoon and evening. Late tonight, showers and thunderstorms
look to taper off over northwest and west central areas, but
scattered to numerous coverage is forecast to continue mainly
along and east of a line from Taos to Glenwood, except for more
isolated activity near New Mexico`s eastern border. In the wake of
the storms late tonight into Saturday morning, there will be a
roughly 30 percent chance of patchy low clouds and fog developing
over central and western areas, especially in locations where the
ground is wet and sky clears enabling effective radiational
cooling.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 118 AM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
South and southwest winds will be gusty across the forecast area
today. Erratic wind gusts with thunderstorms along and west of the
central mountain chain could reach 60 mph this afternoon and
evening. At least one squall line passing eastward over central
areas from 2-5 PM this afternoon will probably produce a 1-2 hour
period of strong west and northwest winds. A Pacific cold front
will produce a west and northwest wind shift over western then
central areas Saturday, and over eastern areas Saturday night.
Most of the fire weather forecast area should receive over a
quarter inch of rain today through Saturday night, with locally
higher amounts over 2 inches central and west, and over 3 inches
across the east. After mostly dry weather Sunday, then a return of
monsoon storms Monday through Wednesday along and east of the
continental divide, areas farther west will probably feel
critically low minimum humidities develop Wednesday and Thursday.
The Moreno Valley, and other high mountain valleys, are likely to
experience the first freeze of the season Saturday night, then a
hard freeze Sunday night, and more freezing overnight temperatures
during the middle of the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  75  54  76  47 /  80  60  40  10
Dulce...........................  74  46  70  39 /  80  80  70  20
Cuba............................  77  50  73  44 /  80  80  80  20
Gallup..........................  76  47  75  39 /  80  50  30   0
El Morro........................  74  49  72  41 /  80  80  60   5
Grants..........................  77  50  75  41 /  80  80  70  10
Quemado.........................  78  51  76  44 /  70  60  50   5
Magdalena.......................  79  54  74  49 /  70  80  80  30
Datil...........................  75  50  73  44 /  70  80  60  20
Reserve.........................  83  50  81  44 /  70  60  50   5
Glenwood........................  86  54  84  51 /  70  70  50   5
Chama...........................  70  45  64  38 /  70  90  70  20
Los Alamos......................  76  53  68  50 /  60  80  80  30
Pecos...........................  79  51  71  45 /  40  80  80  40
Cerro/Questa....................  76  49  70  42 /  40  80  60  30
Red River.......................  69  42  62  36 /  30  70  60  30
Angel Fire......................  71  42  65  30 /  30  70  70  30
Taos............................  78  51  72  42 /  30  80  60  30
Mora............................  74  48  68  42 /  30  70  80  40
Espanola........................  83  54  75  46 /  40  80  80  40
Santa Fe........................  80  55  73  48 /  40  80  80  40
Santa Fe Airport................  83  54  77  46 /  40  80  80  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  84  60  78  54 /  50  90  80  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  86  61  80  55 /  50  90  80  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  87  57  81  49 /  50  90  80  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  87  59  80  54 /  60  90  80  30
Belen...........................  89  59  83  54 /  50  90  80  30
Bernalillo......................  87  58  80  52 /  50  90  80  30
Bosque Farms....................  87  56  80  51 /  50  90  80  30
Corrales........................  88  58  81  52 /  50  90  80  30
Los Lunas.......................  87  57  80  53 /  50  90  80  30
Placitas........................  83  57  77  51 /  50  90  80  40
Rio Rancho......................  85  59  79  53 /  60  90  80  30
Socorro.........................  89  60  82  56 /  50  90  80  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  79  54  72  48 /  50  90  80  40
Tijeras.........................  80  56  74  50 /  50  90  80  40
Edgewood........................  80  54  73  48 /  50  90  80  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  82  52  75  46 /  40  80  80  40
Clines Corners..................  78  53  71  47 /  30  80  80  50
Mountainair.....................  81  54  75  49 /  40  80  90  40
Gran Quivira....................  81  54  74  50 /  30  80  90  50
Carrizozo.......................  83  59  78  56 /  20  70  80  50
Ruidoso.........................  76  51  72  50 /  20  60  80  60
Capulin.........................  78  53  70  46 /  10  40  60  40
Raton...........................  80  53  72  46 /  20  50  60  30
Springer........................  83  55  75  47 /  20  60  70  40
Las Vegas.......................  77  52  70  47 /  20  70  70  50
Clayton.........................  86  60  76  55 /   0  20  50  50
Roy.............................  81  56  71  51 /   5  50  70  50
Conchas.........................  88  61  78  57 /   0  50  70  60
Santa Rosa......................  85  59  76  55 /  10  60  80  60
Tucumcari.......................  87  60  78  57 /   0  30  70  60
Clovis..........................  88  62  82  59 /   0  10  70  70
Portales........................  89  62  84  60 /   0  10  70  70
Fort Sumner.....................  88  62  80  58 /   0  40  80  60
Roswell.........................  90  65  84  62 /   5  20  60  60
Picacho.........................  86  59  80  57 /  20  40  80  60
Elk.............................  81  56  76  54 /  20  40  80  50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 10 AM MDT this morning through this evening for
NMZ201-203-204-206-207-210>219-221.
Flood Watch from 3 PM MDT this afternoon through late tonight
for NMZ226.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion