Mapleton, Iowa Weather Forecast Discussion

794
FXUS63 KOAX 061048
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
548 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Much cooler temperatures today with highs in the upper 50s as
  showers continue on-and-off through this evening.
- Temperatures gradually trend warmer through the week with
  highs back in the 80s by this weekend.
- A weak system could bring a few isolated showers to the area
  on Thursday (15-20% chance).
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
The front this morning has stalled across the far southeastern
portion of our area, draped from Marysville, KS to Clarinda, IA.
This leaves us with cooler air in place across the region.
Showers and thunderstorms continue along and south of I-80 as
the low-level jet has enhanced elevated instability north of
the stalled frontal boundary. This elevated instability will
diminish as mixing occurs and the low-level jet weakens after
daybreak leading to a decrease in thunder with the shower
activity.
Meanwhile, we`re watching another shortwave traverse across
western Nebraska, which will bring an increase in shower
activity across our area later this morning, this time primarily
along and north of I-80. As the low-level jet weakens after
daybreak, we`ll see elevated instability diminish, with little-
to-no instability forecast through the shower activity later
this morning into this afternoon. If we do see a few rumbles of
thunder, they would probably be with any activity south closer
to the stationary front early this afternoon. In any case, not
expecting anything significant to come of shower or storm
activity today, with rain coming to an end around 7-10 PM this
evening.
Skies will be clearing overnight tonight as the stationary front
finally gets a move-on and shifts off to the southeast. With
winds becoming light, I wouldn`t be shocked if we saw a
significant threat for fog developing Tuesday morning with
all the lingering low-level moisture. Models aren`t really doing
more than hinting at it at this time, but I expect this will be
a concern.
The surface high will be shifting across the area on Tuesday
keeping skies mostly clear with temperatures staying on the
cooler side of normal. Highs on Tuesday will only get up into
the mid-to-upper 60s despite mostly clear skies. Tuesday night
into Wednesday we see winds shift back to southerly on the back
side of the High while cool, dry northwesterly flow aloft
will keep us from warming up too much more than a couple
degrees.
Towards the latter-half of the week, we see a ridge build up
over the Rockies and expand eastward into the Great Plains
region. A weak shortwave traverses over the top of the ridge on
Thursday, ramping up the low-level jet over eastern Nebraska.
This will bring warmer air back into the region warming highs
back into the 70s Thursday afternoon. Significant dry air gets
entrained into the low-level jet from New Mexico and northwest
Texas, limiting shower and storm potential as the system moves
through, but more moisture is able to get ingested as the system
moves eastward into Iowa, bringing better chances for showers
and storms across our far eastern counties Thursday night into
early Friday.
Despite the brief hic-up in the pattern, the ridge only
continues to amplify across the region Friday into the weekend
which will lead to a warming trend with highs back in the upper
70s for Friday and 80s forecast for Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 548 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Showers are moving across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa
with cigs gradually lowering. Expect cigs to settle around FL015
by around 15Z at KLNK and KOMA. KOFK should stay north of the
low cigs and remain VFR through the day, though a cloud deck
around FL050 is pushing north into the area and will remain in
place through this afternoon. Expect no improvement through the
day at KOMA and KLNK as another wave of showers moves through
later this morning out of Central Nebraska. Rain will continue
on and off through the day, likely not clearing until this
evening with cigs finally lifting to VFR around 00-02Z. Not
expecting any thunderstorms with these rounds of rain, though we
could see a few storms across far southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa. Winds will remain out of the north through the
TAF period.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion