Marietta, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

869
FXUS62 KILM 152353
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
753 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure well off the NC coast will spread clouds and some
rain across eastern NC tonight. The low will linger near the
Outer Banks through Wednesday before high pressure brings drier
and slightly warmer weather for the second half of the week.
&&
.UPDATE...
No big changes made to the public/marine forecasts, although did
back off on rain chances a bit at least this evening. Aviation
forecast updated for 00Z TAFs.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The offshore is roughly near Cape Hatteras at this time, where
it looks to stall through the rest of the period, continuing to
impact eastern North Carolina just to our north. A north breeze
will linger tonight with increasing mid/low level cloud cover,
particularly for SE NC. Fog shouldn`t be an issue. Winds will
turn to the NW as the system shifts slightly, being just as
strong as we`ve been seeing, 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph.
Rain chances will shift from our eastern areas to our inland NC
areas into Tuesday morning. Scattered activity is what we`re
expecting at best and rainfall totals will be light, likely
below 0.5".
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper low moving onshore over northeastern NC will push
moisture into the central and southeastern portions of the state
late Tuesday. With the majority of the moisture on the west and
southwest side of the low, clouds and showers could be ongoing
at the start of the period. The lack of deep moisture should
limit the intensity of any showers that develop to a light
shower or drizzle.
The NBM is keeping most of the area dry on Tuesday evening, but
I have introduced a contour of slight chance southward toward
the NC/SC state line to account for the remnant moisture around
the low. The best chance of showers will be in the Lumberton and
Elizabethtown vicinity.
Much of the existing PV advection succumbs to weak subsidence
as the low begins a gradual drift to the north and east. Some
dry air in the mid levels also works to scour the remaining rain
chances overnight into Wednesday morning. Cloud cover should
remain as pooling moisture sits beneath a mid level inversion.
Current forecast lows are likely too cool given the anticipated
cloud cover. Expect upper 60s to around 70 by Wednesday morning.
Northerly flow on Wednesday, in addition to low clouds, will
keep the majority of the area in the 70s, a few stations could
struggle to reach the 75 degree mark. Plenty of uncertainty
regarding lows on Wednesday night, depending on the extent and
thickness of cloud cover. Models indicate that subsidence should
have eroded clouds by sunrise Wednesday and the majority of
guidance has lows in the lower 60s. Model soundings hint at some
stubborn cloud cover, so a cloudy evening could hold
temperatures in the upper 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry air and warmer temperatures will dominate the end of the
week. Westerly flow will bring a constant supply of dry air
while disorganized ridging aloft allows surface temperatures to
climb to above normal for mid September. High pressure will
begin to settle over the northeastern US on Saturday, setting
the stage for a cooler and cloudier day on Sunday. Another wedge
of high pressure builds across the region Saturday night with
increasing onshore flow, gradually turning toward the NE on
Sunday. Below normal temperatures will likely return for Sunday
and Monday with increasing cloud cover. Ensembles still show dry
air with this wedge, so precip chances remain low.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Moderate to high confidence through 00Z Wed across SE NC and NE
SC. Offshore low pressure will shift toward the NC Outer Banks
tonight and move a bit farther inland on Tue. Low clouds and
some showers are expected to wrap around the west/south side of
the low, mainly affecting KILM/KLBT. Greatest confidence is in
MVFR conditions but IFR cigs could also occur. Otherwise, gusty
N/NW winds to around 20 kt, especially during the day Tue.
Extended Outlook... MVFR/IFR may linger through Wednesday as
low pressure impacts eastern North Carolina. Clearing is
expected through the latter half of the week under dry high
pressure.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Tuesday... Small Craft conditions will continue into
tonight as low pressure sits off Cape Hatteras. The system will
stall over eastern North Carolina through Tuesday with winds
becoming offshore still ~20 kts, but seas dropping to 2-4 ft
after the wind shift. The NW wind wave will make for choppy
waters, but just short of SCA criteria.
Tuesday Night Through Saturday... Low pressure lifts off to the
north and east during the middle of this week. A weakening
gradient will allow NW and W winds to gradually relax through
Thursday. Seas decrease from 2-4 feet late Tuesday to 1-2 by
Wednesday evening. On Thursday afternoon, winds become light and
an afternoon sea breeze should become dominant.
High pressure building over the northeastern US will re-
establish E and NE flow late Saturday with a wedge of high
pressure to build for the latter half of the weekend. Still too
early to discuss specific timing details, but expect a period of
SCA conditions late this weekend and into early next week.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for
         AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...RJB/LEW
MARINE...21/LEW

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion