Marion, Connecticut Weather Forecast Discussion

754
FXUS61 KOKX 222321
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
721 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain just offshore through Tuesday
afternoon. A cold front will approach late Tuesday into Tuesday
night and stall nearby on Wednesday. A slow moving area of low
pressure will then approach from the west and impact the region
from Thursday through Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Elongated surface ridge extends from Nova Scotia SW to just off
the New England and Mid Atlantic coasts, and will remain in
place through tonight. Low level flow has become southerly and
with weak warm air/moisture advection temps tonight should not
be as cool as last night, with lows from the upper 50s to mid
60s, with mostly cloudy skies from NYC north/west as afternoon
clouds there in places have been stubborn to scatter out. Some
low stratus may also be possible in the NYC metro area and along
the coast late tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The area will lie between weak offshore upper ridging, a closed
low well to the NE over ern Canada, and another weak closed low
over the upper Great Lakes region. Shortwave energy ejecting
form the Great Lakes low will send a cold front toward the area
late Tue into Tue night, with chance of showers and possibly a
tstm late in the afternoon mainly well NW of NYC. As the front
moves closer to the area Tue night, PoP increases to likely for
most of the area along with slight chance of thunder, then
shifts more into SE CT and eastern Long Island after midnight.
Temps on Tue will be on the warm side, with highs reaching the
lower 80s for the NYC metro area and across most of the
interior, and the mid/upper 70s for most of Long Island and SE
CT. Temps Tue night with clouds and precip around will also
remain mild, with lows in the 60s.
The front now looks to stall closer to the area than previously
fcst, either right over or just south of the area on Wed, with
chances for showers mainly in the afternoon. High temps should
range from the lower 80s in urban NE NJ, to the mid/upper 70s
elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NBM was followed with no changes.
Key Points:
* A slow moving area of low pressure is expected to impact the
  region through much of the period.
* Chances of showers persist through much of the period with a
  threat of thunderstorms Thursday into Thursday night. Timing
  and coverage of rainfall remains uncertain.
* Drier conditions expected Sunday into Monday as high pressure
  builds back into the region.
* Daytime temperatures will be near normal, with highs in the
  70s. The warmest day in the long term will be Sunday, with
  temperatures possibly reaching 80 in the NJ/NYC metro.
  Nighttime lows will be slightly above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure gives way to an approaching pre-frontal trough late in
the day Tuesday.
Mainly VFR through late in the day Tuesday outside of tempo or
possibly prevailing MVFR cigs during the morning push. Chance of
showers or even a TSTM late aftn into early evening with a better
chance of showers during the nighttime hours. MVFR probable in these
showers.
S winds under 10kt bcmg SW overnight and continuing through Tuesday
evening, except winds will be around 10kt late morning through
afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
TEMPO MVFR cigs during the morning push might not occur, but also a
chance that they could prevail for a few hours. Showers might not
prevail Tuesday night.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday night: MVFR with showers. TSTM possible early.
Wednesday through Friday: Periods of MVFR with shwrs possible.
Isold tstms possible at times.
Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Ocean seas have fallen just below 5 ft, but per trend at buoys
well offshore think sets of higher swells from distant Hurricane
Gabrielle should start to come back in tonight. Therefore the
SCA continues for the ocean waters, and has also been extended
into Wed morning from Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet and
through the day Wed E of there to Montauk. Please refer to the
National Hurricane Center for further details on Gabrielle.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front from late Tue
afternoon into Tue evening could produce downpours that result
in brief nuisance flooding in urban and poor drainage locales,
mainly across interior NE NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, and
interior SW CT. Antecedent conditions have been notably dry, and
the risk for flash flooding is low.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high risk of rip current development through
Wednesday at the ocean beaches as a long period 4-5 ft SE swell
arrives from distant Hurricane Gabrielle.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Wednesday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ355.
&&
$$

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion