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Markham, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

725
FXUS63 KLOT 200841 CCA
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 341 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and embedded storms through early this morning, some with brief heavy rain and gusty winds. Additional threat for scattered gusty storms later this afternoon.

- Increasing signal for more widespread showers and embedded storms tonight/early Sunday morning, mainly north of I-80.

- Periodic chances for showers and some thunderstorms through early next week, though there will continue to be plenty of dry hours too.

- Afternoon temperatures will remain above normal through the Autumn Equinox (Monday at 1:19 PM CDT), though not quite as warm as they`ve been the past few to several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025

Through Sunday:

Messy/tricky forecast continues today with a main upper low to our northwest and several embedded lower-amplitude vorticity maxima set to pivot through the general vicinity today. Model guidance generally has exhibited poor run-to-run consistency as well, and appears to be having a difficult time handling the degree of mid- level saturation and precise placement and magnitude of embedded vort maxes. All of this casts some extra layers of uncertainty on the forecast for today and tonight, although some trends are beginning to emerge.

Through the rest of this morning, a north-south axis of increased 800-600 mb moisture coincident with broad, modest warm isentropic upglide is resulting in the development of elevated showers and embedded storms. Through daybreak, have focused the highest precipitation chances east of about a Pontiac to Woodstock line, and particularly focused across Chicago and the south/western burbs, although isolated convection will be possible farther west. Some showers and storms may linger through mid-morning across far northeast Illinois and over the lake prior upglide weakening and deeper moisture pushing off to the east. Thereafter, expecting a brief lull in activity during the late-morning.

Towards midday, the main 500 mb shortwave axis should be pressing across the southwestern third of the forecast area as the primary upper low shifts into Wisconsin. An additional subtle 700 mb trough axis currently moving across central Missouri will commensurately lift northward across central Illinois. As all of this occurs, a zone of modestly-increased mid/upper flow--presently scooting across southern Iowa--will start to impinge on the region. The Des Moines, Iowa VWP has recently indicated flow near 40-45 knots at 500 mb associated with this westerly jet streak, which is a bit stronger than current model guidance would suggest. While it`s possible these readings are a bit high and contaminated a bit by ongoing precipitation, this could play a role in the evolution of this afternoon`s weather.

While it remains a bit unclear how much insolation we`ll see today following the morning activity, trends suggest at least filtered sunshine will develop, allowing temperatures to push into the upper 70s/near 80 degrees. With dewpoints possibly rising through the mid 60s and 500 mb temperatures near -15 C, MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg may materialize through early afternoon, along with diurnally-eroding CIN. The arrival of the aforementioned shortwave will likely serve as the main large scale driving mechanism today, and if we destabilize as currently expected, scattered showers and thunderstorms may re- develop. At this time, the main focus area appears to be about along/east of I-55, where the strongest DCVA is expected to encounter the greatest instability. Accounting for perhaps a little more mid-level flow than guidance currently indicates (based on upstream radar observations), deep-layer shear values near around 30 kts may be sufficient for at least ephemeral updraft organization. Suspect the HRRR is too aggressively mixing dewpoints out again, and resulting in deeper inverted-V soundings than we`ll see in reality, but regardless, stronger cores today may be capable of strong/gusty precip-loaded downbursts.

This evening and tonight, a trailing shortwave currently over Nebraska will slide into the region. At the same time upper divergence is forecast to increase under the right entrance region of an anticyclonically-arcing jet streak. Given this recent trend, while model guidance does not universally show increasing precipitation coverage, based on upstream observations and ongoing model trends, elected to boost PoPs late this evening and overnight, mainly near and north of I-80, with the expectation of increasing shower and embedded thunderstorm coverage. Low-level flow again does not look super concerning from a backbuilding/training perspective, but some very localized training could materialize.

Precipitation may persist into Sunday morning, although expect a gradual diminishing trend through the morning once again. Model guidance has been all over the place regarding the handling of follow-up shortwaves/convectively-augmented MCVs in the vicinity, so forecast confidence on Sunday remains notably low. Increased cloud cover could also end up muting insolation to some degree as well, all of which suggests capping PoPs in the 30-50 percent range for now. Can`t rule out the potential for a few stronger storms given indications of some stronger 700-500 mb flow riding in overhead, but there are too many other uncertainties to pin this threat down at this point.

Carlaw

Sunday Night through Friday:

Intermittent shower and thunderstorm chances will persist Sunday night through Tuesday as additional disturbances ripple through the west to northwesterly flow aloft. A chaotic upper pattern into the middle and end of next week will likely continue to result in lower-than-typical forecast confidence. Some signal remains in the extended guidance for at least a brief return to drier conditions (especially near/north of I-80) in the wake of a cold front towards midweek, but depending on the influence of another upper low towards the end of the week, this could end up being short-lived. The latest GFS in particular would indicate little/no break in the action with a Fujiwhara dance taking place between several robust disturbances across the central CONUS.

Temperatures this upcoming week will start out solidly above normal (along with fairly humid conditions as well), with highs well into the 70s to near 80F through Tuesday, then trending closer to normal and a bit less humid in the mid to late week.

Carlaw/Castro

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025

Key Aviation Messages for the current TAF period:

- Scattered showers and isolated thunder chances through daybreak

- Another round of showers with chances for thunder Saturday afternoon

An upper level low over Iowa that is gradually moving north and east will continue to produce a showery regime over northern Illinois and northwest Indiana through the current TAF period. There will be periods of showers and storms, but model guidance is struggling with handling it with lower confidence regarding timing of cells passing over any one individual terminal.

Currently, clusters of showers and isolated embedded thunder in Central Illinois are moving northward. With instability being meager, there is low confidence in thunder perpetuating at any one specific terminal. Confidence is higher for terminals to receive showers, but chances for intermittent lightning has increased therefore it was decided to add a VCTS at Chicago terminals timing out when they are expected. Meanwhile, with KRFD located in the gap of stability axes, maintained the PROB30 for -SHRA. Thunder cannot be completely ruled out, but was kept out at this time.

There is an expectation for a brief break this morning from the weather with VFR conditions and southeast winds at or below 10 knots. However, a close eye is monitoring what is exiting Nebraska and moving through southern Iowa as that should be the next round for showers and storms. And with better instability this afternoon, there is at least a better chance for thunder and the potential for isolated wind gusts up to 20 knots associated with a storm. Timing still looks good so the PROB30 was maintained for now, but if trends continue, switching to a TEMPO during the 12Z package looks plausible.

Some models are suggesting another round of showers and storms around 12Z Sunday morning, but given the low confidence in the overall pattern, VCSH was maintained at present through the end of the TAF window.

DK

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None.

&&

$$

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NWS LOT Office Area Forecast Discussion

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