Markham, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

261
FXUS61 KLWX 041812
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
212 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will progress offshore this weekend. A strong
cold front will move through during the middle of next week.
High pressure will build back in behind the cold front for the
end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Very few clouds to be seen this afternoon with current temperatures
in the 70s to low 80s. This is the result of a light S to SW flow
this afternoon as high pressure to our north has shifted off the
northeast coast.
Clear skies and light to calm winds are expected overnight. Patchy
fog may form once again during the late night hours. Low
temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer than preceding nights,
with upper 40s to mid 50s for most.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will remain offshore and upper ridging will hold
strong aloft through Monday. Our stretch of dry weather will
continue as a result, with mostly sunny skies each day and
mostly clear skies each night. Southerly flow will keep
temperatures above normal, with highs in the lower 80s for most.
Low temperatures will generally be in the 50s. Patchy fog will
continue to be possible each night, especially in sheltered
river valleys.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A strong cold front approaches the area on Tuesday and while most
areas remain dry during the day, a few showers could move across the
Alleghenies by early evening. Ahead of the front, breezy southerly
winds are likely to develop across the area with gusts around 20 to
25 mph. Tuesday is going to be very warm and above normal for mid
October. Highs are forecast to reach the low to mid 80s, and if some
downsloping winds occur west of the Blue Ridge (directly will need
to be just east of south for this to happen) then we could see some
temps reach the upper 80s in those areas. The Cumberland to
Petersburg corridor seems to be the most favorable for this.Given
the ongoing D2-3 (severe to extreme drought) in that area there
could be some fire weather concerns to monitor.
Rain chances increase Tuesday night, then the main front moves
through the area on Wednesday. There continues to be a decreasing
trend in QPF from the model guidance now only showing around a few
tenths to half an inch of rain. Closer to normal highs Wednesday in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. There is still timing uncertainties as
to when the front moves through exactly, with the ECMWF being faster
than most of the other guidance by about 12 hours. Regardless, a a
surge of cold northerly winds usher in fall-like temperatures and
dry conditions Wednesday night through the end of next week.
Temps plummet Wednesday night to the 40s in most areas, with mid to
upper 30s in the Alleghenies. Highs Thursday in the low to mid 60s,
then widespread upper 30s to low 40s Thursday night. Frost is going
to be possible in many areas west of the Blue Ridge as winds go
light to calm. It is not out of the question the first freeze of the
year occurs in some areas west of the Blue Ridge Thursday night.
Highs Friday in the mid to upper 60s, though winds turn out of the
east as a surface high over the Northeast quickly moves
offshore.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through
Monday. Winds will be light out of the south to southeast
during the daylight hours, before going calm overnight in most
locations. Patchy fog may be possible each night, especially
near MRB and CHO. Could even see some patchy fog further east
tonight, potentially at IAD.
VFR conditions are likely to prevail for the most part through the
middle of next week. A cold front approaches the area on Tuesday and
this will result in breezy south winds gusting to around 20 knots.
The front moves through Wednesday, though showers and possible
thunderstorm coverage could end up being low. Winds turn north and
remain elevated Wednesday night.
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA level southerly winds are expected over the waters each day
through Monday. Winds will be the lightest today, at around 5 knots.
A slight increase is expected Sunday afternoon into Monday with
winds around 10 knots.
Southerly channeling is likely to produce SCA conditions over most
of the waters Tuesday afternoon to evening as a cold front
approaches the region. The front moves through on Wednesday,
possibly bringing some thunderstorms to the waters in the afternoon
to early evening. SCA conditions are likely to start in the bay
Wednesday afternoon, then spread across all the waters Wednesday
night into Thursday as winds turn north behind the front.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies at Annapolis remain somewhat elevated, so the
higher of the two high tide cycles each day will continue to
reach action stage in the coming days. No flooding is forecast
anywhere for the foreseeable future.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJP
NEAR TERM...CJL
SHORT TERM...CJL/KJP
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...CJL/KJP/KRR
MARINE...CJL/KJP/KRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CJL

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion