Marsing, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

231
FXUS65 KBOI 082035
AFDBOI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
235 PM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night...A slow moving
closed low will increase the chance of precipitation, including
afternoon thunderstorms, as it tracks across Oregon Tuesday and
Wednesday. On Tuesday, the focus of development will be across
higher terrain in the w-central Idaho mtns while a dry slot to
the west minimizes development across SE Oregon. By Wednesday
afternoon the mid-level circulation is expected to reach SE
Oregon. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to precede the
low center, developing across s-central ID and the w-central ID
mtns while an area of precipitation sets up under the low
center across SE Oregon (Harney/Malheur counties). Precipitable
water values reach 0.75-1" by Wednesday, increasing the
potential for locally heavy rainfall (as outlined by the
Marginal Risk in WPC`s Excessive Rainfall Outlook). Across
portions of SW Idaho these amounts could come quickly from
thunderstorms, while a period of steady moderate to locally
heavy rainfall and embedded thunderstorms would add up on a
longer timescale in SE Oregon zones. While the thunderstorm
environment is looking favorable across SW Idaho from the west-
central Idaho mtns through the Treasure Valley and western Magic
Valley to the ID/NV line it is highly dependent on the
timing/track of the closed low and accompanying cloud cover so
uncertainty remains. Temperatures are near normal on Tuesday
(low 80s in the valleys), dropping to 5-10 degrees below normal
on Wednesday.
.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...The upper low/trough will
be slow to move across the area Thursday and Friday.
Precipitation chances are fairly high (40-70 percent) Thursday,
then decrease on Friday (30-60 percent). Thunderstorm chances
are about 15-20 percent each day. Drier and a little warmer
conditions on Saturday in between systems. Models bring another
trough through the area on Sunday and Monday with slightly
cooler temperatures and a chance (20- 40 percent) of
precipitation. Temperatures will be around 10 degrees below
normal on Thursday and Friday, warming to near normal by
Saturday, then 2-5 degrees below normal Sunday and Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in mtns NW
of KBKE KBNO through 02Z this evening. Surface winds: NW-SW
5-15kt with local gusts to 25 kt in SE Oregon (mainly KBKE-
KONO after 03Z). Tuesday will see afternoon thunderstorm
development over the w-central ID mtns. Winds aloft at 10kft
MSL: SW 5-15kt.
KBOI...VFR. N-NW surface winds gusty at times, becoming light
and variable after sunset.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.
&&
$$
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SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....TL
AVIATION.....DG

NWS BOI Office Area Forecast Discussion