Maxey, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

175
FXUS65 KPUB 271059
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
459 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over the high
  country, with very isolated thunderstorms possible over the
  I-25 corridor later this evening as well.
- Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday and
  very near normal, with much of our plains back into the 70s
  and low 80s.
- Showers and thunderstorms expected across the higher terrain
  this weekend through Monday morning, with the best chances
  along the Continental Divide on Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Currently..
A low can be seen on satellite imagery over the southern
California/Arizona border early this morning, with middle and high
clouds extending north over our forecast area. We are dry with no
returns on radar this morning. Winds are mainly light, and are
either following normal drainage patterns, or are southerly.
Temperatures are in the low 50s across the plains as of 2 AM, which
is a few degrees warmer than where we were at this time last night.
Dewpoints are still mainly in the 40s over the eastern plains, 30s
over the I-25 corridor, and 20s over the high country.
Today and Tonight..
The Omega block stays in place for the most part today, only
allowing the low to shift slightly more inland over the Arizona
border by Sunday morning. The main difference between yesterday`s
forecast and today`s forecast will be a bit of an increase in low-
level moisture, along with the resultant increase in coverage for
showers and thunderstorms as southerly surface flow increases.
Storms look to be more scattered for today, with highest coverage
still remaining over the San Juans, though isolated storms will be
possible as far east as the I-25 corridor later this evening. Some
high res model guidance suggests that storms will be possible over
the Pikes Peak region through the late evening hours as well, though
severe storms are not expected. Storm motions will be more south to
north than what we are accustomed to seeing. Daytime highs today
will also be a few degrees cooler than yesterday thanks to a subtle
cool front that moved over the region late Friday night/early this
morning. Temperatures look to top out in the low to mid 80s for much
of the plains, with 70s over our mountain valleys, the Raton Mesa,
and the Pikes Peak region.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Sunday...Models have been consistent in showing the upper low system
just west of Colorado weakening and starting to move on Sunday,
pushing over the Four Corners through the day. Sunday will see the
greatest precipitation chances across the forecast area, with the
highest probabilities found along the Continental Divide. SPC has
painted a General Thunder area encompassing all of the higher
terrain, and WPC indicates a slight excessive rainfall threat across
the southern mts. Shower activity during the morning hours will
increase significantly through the day, spreading to all of the
higher terrain and spilling over across the I-25 Corridor during the
afternoon. High temps will be slightly cooler for the higher
terrain, with readings in the 60s to near 70F for the high valleys,
and mid 70s to mid 80s for the plains.
Sunday night through Monday...Upper low system continues to weaken
and eject to the northeast Sunday evening and through the day
Monday, producing chances for convection across all of the higher
terrain and I-25 Corridor into Monday afternoon. The upper wave
starts to ext the area Monday evening, and activity should come to
an end by midnight if not sooner. Monday is expected to be the
coolest day of the extended period, with highs in the 60s for the
high valleys, and lower 70s to lower 80s for the plains.
Tuesday through Thursday...Better agreement amongst the long range
models on what happens through the upcoming week. A quick-moving
upper wave glances by to the north-northwest on Tue, just producing
some isolated convection across the higher terrain. Upper level
ridging builds in for Wed and Thu, producing dry conditions and
continued seasonable temperatures. Plan on highs each day in the
upper 60s to mid 70s for the high valleys, and mid 70s to mid 80s
for the plains.
Friday...Another pacific low pressure system approaches for the end
of the week, bringing isolated convection to the higher terrain
through the day, then across the entire forecast area through the
night. At this time the extended procedure is keeping normal
temperatures in place, but the increasing southwest flow aloft will
likely help bump temps across the plains to above normal levels.
Moore
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 459 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
For KCOS and KPUB..VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours
at both stations. Winds will be mainly east-southeasterly today,
with gusts to 22kt. Increasing middle and upper-level cloud cover is
expected. Showers will be possible near KCOS this evening, mainly
after 03Z. Thunderstorms are not likely (less than 30%) at this
time, though KCOS will have a low end chance of storms over or near
station through the late afternoon and evening hours, especially
along the higher terrain west of station.
For KALS..VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.
Southeasterly winds and increasing middle and upper-level clouds
will be present today. Showers and thunderstorms are likely along
the higher terrain surrounding the terminal this afternoon, though
chances for storms moving over station are low at this time (less
than 30%). Main timeframe for storm and vicinity shower chances will
be from 20Z through 02Z.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...EHR

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion