Mc Leod, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

348
FXUS64 KSHV 111111
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
611 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
- Above normal temperatures are here to stay with some areas
   possibly approaching triple digit afternoon temperatures today
   and Friday.
- Rain chances still non-existent through the end of the week,
   into the upcoming weekend and through at least the middle part
   of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
As expected, higher dewpoints infiltrated the entire Four State
Region on Wednesday with afternoon dewpoints some 5 to 10 degrees
higher than those our region experienced on Tuesday. Combine that
with ambient temperatures some 2 to 6 degrees higher Wednesday
compared to Tuesday, proving that Summer has returned to our
region and it appears like it`s here to stay for a while.
An Ohio Valley longwave Upper trough will begin ejecting out into
the Appalachians Today and this will allow for upper ridging that
had been centered across the Tx Hill Country into the lee of the
Rockies to move eastward into the Great Plains. While the center
of this upper ridge axis will be to our west, across much of KS,
OK and TX, we will definitely be more under the influence of this
feature vs the departing longwave trough and temperatures
therefore have nowhere to go but up. Stayed with persistence
concerning temperatures Today and again on Friday which results
in a one to two degree increase today and again on Friday. Thus,
mostly middle 90s should prevail for high temperatures Today and
more upper 90s on the map for Friday and would not be surprised
to see Shreveport or Texarkana squeak out 100 degrees by Friday.
While afternoon dewpoints will not be excessive, they will be high
enough for a smattering of triple digit heat indices across our
region, if not today then especially by Friday but Heat Advisory
criteria will likely not be met.
We rinse and repeat with the upper level features for the upcoming
weekend and therefore, persistence will be the best forecast tool
for temperatures this weekend as well with middle to upper 90s a
pretty good bet for both Saturday into Sunday.
Medium range progs for next week look pretty similar unfortunately
when it comes to the positioning and strength of the upper ridge
firmly anchored across our region. There may be some hope by late
next week of a slight eastward migration to the ridge axis which
would allow a weak shortwave to move into the Middle Red River
Valley. This pattern would favor at least some widely scattered
precipitation chances to our northwest half late next week but
until that time, dry and hot conditions will prevail.
13
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
For the ArkLaTex terminals, late summer doldrums are looming
through mid month. Light and variable wind overnight will prevail
SE during daylight for most sites around 5KT or so. Fair wx cu
for most sites this afternoon, but some middeck and a few showers
possible for KELD/KMLU as the tail end of the upper trough
lingers over the ArkLaMiss. Otherwise, just a little likely to
see patchy BR possible at daybreak through the weekend. /24/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  98  73  99  74 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  95  71  97  71 /  10   0   0   0
DEQ  92  67  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  96  71  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  95  68  96  69 /  10   0   0   0
TYR  92  71  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  94  69  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  94  69  95  71 /  10   0   0   0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...24

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion