Meadow Creek, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

468
FXUS63 KJKL 201145 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
745 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A possibility for showers and thunderstorms returns during the
  weekend, and the probability climbs higher during the upcoming
  workweek.
- Widespread, beneficial rainfall is possible next week, which
  would help to ease ongoing dry conditions across much of eastern
  Kentucky.
- There is a possibility for strong thunderstorms on Thursday,
  but significant uncertainty remains with the parent storm
  system`s track and strength.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2025
08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure starting to pull away to the
northeast of the area. This has allowed more in the way of mid and
high level clouds to move into eastern Kentucky from the
southwest. These clouds have helped to limit the terrain
distinction this night compared to the past few - while also
keeping the fog confined to the river valleys. Temperatures vary
from the upper 50s in some of the low spots with clearer skies to
the mid 60s under the thicker clouds and on the hills. Meanwhile,
amid light and variable winds, dewpoints are up a bit and now
running in the upper 50s to lower 60s, most places.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are still in
pretty good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict northwest troughing slipping deeper into
the western Ohio Valley today while pushing the weakening 5h
ridge east out of Kentucky. This will also allow for a pocket of
mid level energy to work through the area today with slight
height falls. Relative weak troughing over the western Great Lakes
will influence the weather for the state through the rest of the
weekend. The continued very small model spread during the short
term portion of the forecast supports using the NBM as the
starting point of the forecast grids with minimal adjustments
needed - mainly just to include some minor terrain enhancements
for temperatures tonight, but also some details from the CAMs for
PoPs this afternoon and Sunday.
Sensible weather features another warm day, but probably not as
hot as Friday in southern area places owing to more clouds and
even a shot at a shower or storm this afternoon. Similar to this
current night, expect partly cloudy conditions with patchy valley
fog to be the rule tonight. Then you can look for a better chance
of convection Sunday afternoon - but this time favoring the more
northwest portions of eastern Kentucky, closer to an area of low
pressure passing through the Ohio Valley. In fact, being closer to
the increasing mid level wind field there will be a potential
for storms in this part of the CWA to organize Sunday afternoon so
SPC has placed a Marginal Risk for severe weather into our
Bluegrass counties. This will also likely keep temperatures
cooler than those of today, but still well above normal.
The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
adjusting PoPs this afternoon and Sunday given the better support
aloft and some signal in the CAMs and NAM for afternoon
convection over the Cumberland Valley today and area-wide on
Sunday.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 525 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2025
Again, the main changes to the extended forecast on this shift
were to slightly enhance the terrain based differences for
temperatures each night. The PoP chances are looking more
promising for the new work week with even some excessive rains
possible by mid week.
The previous long term discussion follows:
The forecast period begins Sunday morning with a positively-
tilted 500 mb trough extending from Northern Ontario into the
Central Plains. Ridging is departing via the Mid-Atlantic and New
England as multiple disturbances eject from the Southern/Central
Plains toward the Ohio Valley. One of those disturbances will be
lifting into the Lower Ohio Valley Sunday morning, accompanied by
strong low-level warm air and moisture advection. The strongest
modeled forcing initially favors the western half of the forecast
area, where isolated showers and thunderstorms could be ongoing at
the start of the forecast period.
Model agreement is good for the first few days of the long-term
before spread becomes significant during the second half of the
forecast period. At this point, focus is on any notable large-
scale synoptic pattern agreement that is favored by ensembles such
as the 100-member LREF. An analysis of the latest data favors a
broadening 500H trough over the Central and into the northern
CONUS on Monday as the parent upper-level trough dampens and pulls
away to the northeast. Additional energy traverses the Rockies
and begins digging into the large-scale trough by Tuesday.
A majority (~68%) of the 00z LREF guidance showed that energy
diving into the Central Plains on Tuesday, though there were
substantial differences in eastward progression. At least half of
the 100-LREF members then favor that energy leading to the
formation of a closed low near or over Missouri on Wednesday.
Other solutions, however, favor a more subtle open wave. An even
larger number of members have that closed low feature on Thursday
in the vicinity of the mid-Mississippi Valley, though a
significant minority ~25% still favor a more progressive open
trough. In the favored majority solution, the upper low generally
drifts into the lower Ohio Valley region on Friday but could begin
to fill and/or begin the transition to an open wave as it
meanders closer to the stronger westerlies over southern Canada.
The synoptic-scale setup favors a surge of moisture moving in Sunday
into Monday as the trough initially to our northwest dampens and
pulls away. While the stronger upper-level forcing remains to the
north, PWATs are forecast to rise into the 1.3 to 1.6-inch range.
This renewed moisture, combined with surface heating and a
passing upper-level disturbance, will support modest instability
(>500 J/kg) on Sunday; however, weak shear will limit convective
vigor. That moisture lingers through mid-week with additional
passing weak perturbations aloft. The resulting diurnally-
modulated convection will maintain likely (40-60%) rain chances
for Monday through Wednesday. More substantial forcing is likely
to attend the upper low later in the week. Of particular interest,
at this point, is Thursday, which depending upon the track of the
upper low could bring a combination of shear and instability more
favorable for organized strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms as
eastern Kentucky potentially ends up under a strong warm conveyor
belt jet ahead of the systems cold front. While the associated
surface low is still favored to remain north of the Ohio River, a
strong cold front wrapping clockwise around the increasingly
vertically stacked low would then be favored to bring cooler and
perhaps continued showery weather to eastern Kentucky by Friday.
With abnormally dry to drought conditions ongoing across the
Commonwealth, the chances of a much-needed wetting rainfall appear
increasingly likely. The probability of at least 1 inch of
rainfall through Friday ranges from 50% in the far east to nearly
70% west of the Pottsville Escarpment.
In terms of sensible weather, Sunday will be another very warm
day with a mix of sun and clouds and highs in the mid-80s. A
chance of showers and thunderstorms exists, especially over
western portions of the area, though isolated activity is possible
anywhere. Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances will continue
each day from Monday through Wednesday. High temperatures will
gradually fall to around 80F by Wednesday. With more widespread
rain chances on Thursday and possibly Friday, forecast high
temperatures will fall further into the 70s. Nighttime low
temperatures remain in the mid 50s to mid 60s through Wednesday
night before settling back mainly into the 50s late in the week.
Fog is likely in the favored valleys each night and could be more
extensive in locations that receive substantial rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2025
Early morning valley fog has brought localized VLIFR conditions,
but TAF sites are not being affected - expect similar fog behavior
tonight. Outside of the fog, VFR conditions are expected, along
with light winds with any afternoon convection occurring
southeast of all TAF sites.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEERTSON/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion