Mears, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

504
FXUS63 KGRR 011757
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
157 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and above average temps continue through the weekend
- Rain chances increase early next week with cooler temps on the way
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
- Dry and above average temps continue through the weekend
No change in the forecast of dry conditions expected through Sunday.
This pattern, which has been expected for over a week now continues
to progress as expected. The upper ridge axis remains just west of
the area this morning, so we continue to see strong subsidence and
sinking being just downstream of the ridge. The ridge axis moves
east of the area tonight and flattens a bit as upper troughing well
up in Canada moves east across Ontario.
The ridge will be reinforced a bit by another long wave trough aloft
that will move toward the Four Corners region by Saturday. This is
what will extend our dry period through the weekend.
Temperatures, as advertised for many days now, will drop a bit today
as compared to the past few days that were around 80F. This is due
to the low level flow from the NE tapping some of the cooler air
aloft from Eastern Canada. Even with the drop in temps today into
the mid 70s, that still remains above the average of the 60s for
early October.
Temperatures will then gradually warm through the weekend once again
as the low level flow starts to develop a southerly component. This
will push the cooler air north, and bring warmer air aloft back over
the area. Temperatures will approach record levels mainly in the mid
80s F Friday, Saturday, and Sunday with 850 mb temps in the mid
teens C and good mixing conditions. See the climate section below
for more info.
- Rain chances increase early next week with cooler temps on the way
We will see a cold front slowly sink SE into the area on Monday as
the upper trough out west finally comes close enough. The cold front
initially looks to be dry, with only diurnal convection out over the
Plains that dries up overnight Sunday night. This is because the
inflow ahead of the front is coming in from the SE, downsloping off
of the Appalachians.
The front sinks through most of the area, slowing down over the SE
portion of the state Monday night into Tuesday. Conditions become
more favorable for rain by Tuesday, as a northern stream trough
comes in, and induces a sfc low to travel from SW to NE along the
front. This process will also draw Gulf moisture northward, and help
to saturate the atmosphere more efficiently to produce better rain
chances.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 157 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR is likely with 6-12 knot winds from the east-northeast
becoming more from the southeast tomorrow. About 20 knots of wind
shear between 1,000 feet and ground will be present again tonight
03 to 12 Z, as winds at 1,000 feet should be around 25 knots from
120 degrees.
Similar to last night, moisture below 1,000 feet will flow in off
Lake Erie, and some of the high res models are bringing that
layer very close to saturation and cloud development. However, IFR
late tonight is low confidence given that it did not materialize
last night.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 157 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
10 to 20 knot winds from the southeast tonight will build larger
waves away from the nearshore out into the open lake. Winds
turning from the south later in the week will make 2 to 4 footers
more common north of Grand Haven for Friday and Saturday. A small
craft advisory may be needed for Big and Little Sable Points on
Saturday and north of Holland on Sunday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Here are the record highs for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday for some
of our official climate sites. These records will be in jeopardy of
being broken with the warm weather expected those days.
                   Fri              Sat                  Sun
Grand Rapids    86 - 2023       87 - 1951          85 - 1946, 1922
Lansing         90 - 1898       86 - 1951, 1900    87 - 1922, 1900
Muskegon        85 - 2023       84 - 2023          83 - 2007
Kalamazoo       88 - 1953       90 - 1951          87 - 1922
Battle Creek    88 - 1953       87 - 1951          89 - 1900
Holland         86 - 1919       89 - 1951          85 - 2007
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...NJJ
AVIATION...CAS
MARINE...CAS
CLIMATE...NJJ

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion