Melvin, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

539
FXUS63 KDTX 272252
AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
652 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather will persist through the upcoming week as high
pressure dominates the region.
- Temperatures will remain above normal in the low 80s to close out
the month with more seasonal temperatures around 70 expected mid
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
A weak cold front now pushing across far northern Lower Mi will move
across southern Lower Mi overnight. The front will be marked by a
wind shift to the north-northeast as it traverses the terminals;
KMBS around 06Z and metro Detroit 10 to 11Z. There is a narrow
ribbon of post frontal low end VFR based clouds. Model soundings
suggest some moisture residing within the post frontal inversion,
suggesting a period of scattered to perhaps briefly broken low end
VFR based clouds Sun morning, into the early afternoon around metro
Detroit.
For DTW/D21 Convection...Convection is not expected through the TAF
period.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* None.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
DISCUSSION...
Seasonably warm conditions again entrenched locally late this
afternoon, reinforced by ongoing warm air advection within low level
southwest flow beneath prevailing lower amplitude upper ridging.
Deep column stability held within this dry resident air mass
ensuring limited cloud coverage. Brief reduction in the height field
will commence tonight, as minor shortwave energy attendant to a
deeper system pivoting through central Canada tracks through the
great lakes. This will draw a weak cold front across southeast
Michigan late tonight into Sunday morning. Little evidence in model
data to suggest anything beyond perhaps a brief period of cloud
cover along the advancing front. Noted post-frontal low level wind
shift to northeasterly will aid in directing a cooler lake Huron
augmented environment inland throughout Sunday. High degree of
insolation potential will counter this effort, with greater success
outside of the thumb region. Broader distribution in projected
highs, ranging from lower 70s in the eastern thumb to lower 80s
Metro Detroit southward.
A blocked, high amplitude upper level pattern featured for the early
week period maintains this stretch of benign weather with conditions
marked by above average warmth. Pattern solidified as an upper level
high pressure system peaking near 592 dm centers over the region.
Neutral thermal advection overall with low level flow generally
lacking a southerly component lends to gradual moderation of the
resident above average thermal profile given the high magnitude
height field. This translates into highs mainly in the upper 70s to
lower 80s both Mon & Tue, but with light onshore flow contributing
to slightly cooler readings for locales within immediate proximity
to lake influence.
Transition toward slightly cooler conditions Tuesday night into
Wednesday, as strengthening of high pressure to the north
establishes a firm northeast low level gradient. Noteworthy period
of cold air advection certainly augmented by flow off the colder
lake Huron waters, resulting in temperatures that are more
seasonable entering October. These conditions will linger into
Thursday with flow still carrying an easterly component, before
moderating again Friday into next weekend as upper ridging
establishes greater control atop emerging low level southerly flow.
No precipitation expected throughout the work week given the depth
and magnitude of stability residing in this environment.
MARINE...
A cold front tracks across the Great Lakes tonight with minimal
impact aside from a wind shift to the northwest. Otherwise, high
pressure builds into the area Sunday-early next week and again
middle of next to week to support an extended stretch of dry
weather.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......HI
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

NWS DTX Office Area Forecast Discussion