Midway, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

031
FXUS63 KFGF 110444
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1144 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  late Thursday into Thursday night across northeastern ND and
  far northwestern MN.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
High clouds continues to move into our western counties, with
clear skies further east. Not much fog formation so far, but
given low dew point depressions around Lake Itasca can`t
completely rule it out so will keep the patchy fog mention
going. CAMs and the NAM show signs of showers and thunderstorms
developing in central ND and moving into the Devils Lake Basin
towards morning, so kept POPs going.
UPDATE
Issued at 953 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Some high clouds starting to move in from the west, and
southeasterly winds continue. Dew point depressions are
decreasing in our eastern tier, although the main fog bank is
still well to our east near Lake Superior. Will have to see if
we can get patchy fog to develop in our area during the next few
hours.
UPDATE
Issued at 700 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Continued mostly sunny with southeasterly winds early this
evening. Winds not as favorable for fog as last night, but HREF has
some decent probabilities for under half mile visibility in our
southeastern counties. Will keep the patchy fog mention and
monitor trends as the sun goes down.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
...Synopsis...
Upper level flow is characterized by ridging over the central US,
with a large low over California and Oregon. This large area of low
pressure will be the epicenter for waves to emanate from,
propagating across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest late this
week into the weekend.
In the short term, another night of light winds and clear skies
should promote at least some patchy radiational fog. Thinking areas
in the trees of west central MN are most favored at this time with
winds a bit lighter there and more boundary layer moisture present
as shown by current dew points. Any fog that forms should burn off
mid to late Thursday morning.
...Thunderstorm Potential Thursday and Beyond...
A 40 knot low level jet will develop tonight, more so west of
our FA initially, slowly meandering east with time. By Thursday
evening into the overnight period, this jet will be centered
over the eastern half of ND, advecting moisture and instability
northward. This in turn should foster thunderstorm development
on its northern nose. Where this sets up is uncertain. Some CAMs
push it a little further north into southern Manitoba, leaving
our area drier. Others have the nose of the jet hugging the
International border or just to the south, which would bring
much more activity into our FA. Environmentally, ample effective
shear of 25 to 35 knots, along with instability approaching
2000 J/Kg near the nose of the jet should be more then
sufficient for strong to isolated severe thunderstorm
development. Being elevated in nature, the main threat with
these thunderstorms will be severe hail with any stronger cores
embedded within the cluster. While thunderstorms may develop on
and off on the nose of the jet throughout Thursday, the
strongest storms with the best chance for severe weather will
likely hold off until the low level jet strengthens Thursday
night.
After Thursday, multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms seem
likely as we stay sandwiched in an active pattern between
ridging to the east and troughing to the west, which by early
next week breaks down into zonal flow. There are PoPs of varying
values basically every day from Saturday through the end of the
forecast period on Wednesday. This by no means is a washout
type of pattern, but rather many small chances for pop up
afternoon/evening thunderstorms or showers, depending on the
day. Rain and storm chances for each day will be refined as
predictability increases.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
VFR conditions at all TAF sites as high clouds come in from the
west. Recent model runs have lower probabilities for lower
visibility in KBJI with most of the fog staying south and east
of our airports. Will remove MVFR vis for now but will continue
to monitor. Showers and even thunderstorms possible at KDVL area
Thursday morning, but should stay north of the other TAF sites.
Winds will remain out of the southeast and pick up with gusts
above 20 kts Thursday afternoon.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...JR

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion